Question

Write a detailed note on "Demographic transition", Use the APA format you can seach for it online and it should be minimum about 1000 words. This topic comes under "Health Economics".

Answer 1

The theory of demographic transition has many versions. It has been propounded by W.S. Thomson and F.W. Notestein. They explain the theory in three stages.

But the two famous versions are C.P. Blacker’s Five Stages of Population Growth which have been explained here, and Karl Sax’s Four Stages of Population Growth, namely, High Stationary, Early Explosive Increase, Late Explosive Increase, and Low Stationary. He does not explain Blacker’s Declining Stage, while his four stages almost resemble Blacker’s other stages.

According to E.G. Dolan, “Demographic transition refers to a population cycle that begins with a fall in the death rate, continues with a phase of rapid population growth and concludes with a decline in the birth rate.”

Demographic transition explains the effects of changes in birth rate and death rate on the growth rate of population.The theory of demographic transition is based on the actual population trends of advanced countries of the world. This theory states that every country passes through different stages of population development.

According to C.P. Blacker, they are: (i) the high stationary phase marked by high fertility and mortality rates; (ii) the early expanding phase marked by high fertility and high but declining mortality; (iii) the late expanding phase with declining fertility but with mortality declining more rapidly; (iv) the low stationary phase with low fertility balanced by equally low mortality; and (v) the declining phase with low mortality, lower fertility and an excess of deaths over births.

These stages are explained in the Figure-

Birth rate Death rate 40 30 Natural Increase 9 20 10 Total Population Natural Decrease Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 High High Falling Low Very low Birth rate Death rate High Natural increase Stable orslow increase Very rapid increase Low Falls rapidly Falls more slowlyLow Increase slows down Stable or slow increase Stable or slow decrease

1. First Stage

• The stage before industrial revolution. Also known as Pre-transition phase
• The country or region in this stage are characterized by high fertility (birth rate) and high mortality (death rate)
• This stage has low or stable growth rate i.e. population remains constant due to high birth and death rate
• Reasons for high birth rate were: lack of family planning methods, high infant mortality rate convincing couples to have more babies, more family members = more source of economic assets
• Reasons for high mortality rate were: poor health and health services, famine, lack of proper education and unavailability of clean water and sanitation
• Relatively low people in older age

2. Second Stage

• In this stage, birth rate keeps on increasing while death rates begin to fall rapidly/sharply. This results in high/rapid population growth
• It is also known as population explosion stage
• Reasons for decline in death rates were: increase in food supply due to agricultural revolution and improvement in health and sanitation causing reduction in child mortality
• High birth rate results in larger cohort of younger population
• Most of the least developed countries are in this stage

3. Third Stage

• In this stage the birth rate also starts to fall/decrease
• However, the major point is that, while birth rate starts to decrease slowly and gradually, death rate also keeps on falling slowly. This leads to the narrowed gap between birth and death rate compared to early expanding stage
• Result of this stage is low population growth or natural increase in population
• Reasons for gradual decrease in birth rates were: the introduction of contraceptive devices, increase in women’s status and rise in economic conditions and education level of the people
• Most of the developing countries are in this stage

4. Fourth stage

• It is known as the stage of stationary population
• In this stage, birth rates and death rates both are low. Also both of them are approximately equal to each other
• This results in stability/slow rise in population
• Most of the developed countries are in this stage

5. Fifth Stage

• This stage is characterized by low death rate, lower birth rate and excess deaths over births
• In this stage birth rates are below death rates i.e. fertility rate is below the replacement level (2 children). This leads to increase in dependent/elderly population compared to the younger populations
• This stage is resulted due to continuous desire of the families to have a smaller family
• Some parts of Europe like Russia, Sweden and Germany and Japan are reaching towards this stage