Venture | |||||
Scenario | Probability | Return% | =rate of return% * probability | Actual return -expected return(A)% | (A)^2* probability |
Recession | 0.25 | -20 | -5 | -30 | 0.0225 |
Normal | 0.5 | 15 | 7.5 | 5 | 0.00125 |
Boom | 0.25 | 30 | 7.5 | 20 | 0.01 |
A. Expected return %= | sum of weighted return = | 10 | Sum=B. Variance Venture= | 0.03375 | |
B. Standard deviation of Venture% | =(Variance)^(1/2) | 18.37 | |||
C.Coefficient of variation= | Std. dev./return= | 1.837 |
C.
Higher the CV riskier it is . As this venture has CV higher than 1.5 it is more risky
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Highland Investment, a venture investor, is considering investing in a software venture opportunity. However, the rate of return to be realized next year is likely to vary with the economic climate that actually occurs. Following are three possible economic outcomes, the probability that each one will occur, and the rate of return projected for each outcome: Economic Probability of Rate of Climate Occurrence Return Recession .25 -20.0% Normal .50 15.0% Rapid Growth ...
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