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You are considering a new product launch. The project will cost $1,400,000, have a four-year life,...

You are considering a new product launch. The project will cost $1,400,000, have a four-year life, and have no salvage value; depreciation is straight-line to zero. Sales are projected at 180 units per year; price per unit will be $16,000, variable cost per unit will be $9,800, and fixed costs will be $430,000 per year. The required return on the project is 12 percent, and the relevant tax rate is 35 percent. Evaluate the sensitivity of your base-case NPV to an increase in fixed costs by $10,000?

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Answer #1

Please refer below spreadsheet for calculation of above project NPV and Sensitivity of NPV with fixed cost.

P5 F G H Quantit Rate Amount 3 Sales 4 5 Contribution 180 16000 $2,880,000 180 9800 $1,764,000 $ 1,116,000 $ 430,000 $350,000 $336,000 $117,600 218,400 NPV Sensitivity Analvsis with Fixed cost Variable cost Fixed cost Fixed cost Base-case Increase by $10,000 7 Depreciation NPV S 326,429.37S 306,686.60 Earning before tax(EBT ANPV 19,742 9 Tax 10 Net Income AFC(96) ANPV/AFC 6.05% 2.33% 1.9 12 Net operating Cash Flow(OCF) 13| PVAIF(1296,4 14 Present value of OCF 15 Project cost at Present 16 Net Present Value (NPV 17 $568,400 3.0373 $1,726,429.37 1,400,000.00 $ 326,429.37

Formula reference -

P5 F G H Quantit Rate 16000 C3 D3 9800 Amount Sales Variable cost Contribution Fixed cost NPV Sensitivity Analysis with Fixed cost 180 180 -C4 D4 -E3-E4 -430000 1400000/4 -SUM(E5-E6-E E8 *0.35 E8-E9 Fixed cost Base-case Increase by $10,000 E16 reciation NPV ANPV ANPV(% AFC(%) ANPV/AFC 306686.597869378 Earning before tax(EB Tax Net Income 10000/E6 K8/10000 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Net operating Cash Flow(OCF) PVAIE( 1296,4 Present value of OCF Project cost at Present Net Present Value (NPV -E10+E7 PV(0.12,4,-1,,0) -E12 E13 1400000 -E14-E15

The Base -case NPV = $ 326,429.37

Now if Fixed cost cost increase by $ 10,000 then NPV would be - $ 306,686.60

which means if fixed cost increase by $ 10,000 then NPV would fall by - $ (19,742.77)

Thus, sensitivity of NPV to fixed cost is - $ 1.9742

which means if fixed cost change by $ 1 then NPV would change by $ 1.9742 in opposite direction.

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