Question

The following payoff table is given

B3 B4

Find out which option is proposed by the criterion of maximum expected payoff if the probability table of the Bi situations isps % %

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Answer #1
=3/15 =2/15 =4/15 =4/15 =2/15
B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Expected payoff
A1 =B25*B31 =C25*C31 =D25*D31 =E25*E31 =F25*F31 =SUM(B33:F33)
A2 =B26*B31 =C26*C31 =D26*D31 =E26*E31 =F26*F31 =SUM(B34:F34)
A3 =B27*B31 =C27*C31 =D27*D31 =E27*E31 =F27*F31 =SUM(B35:F35)
A4 =B28*B31 =C28*C31 =D28*D31 =E28*E31 =F28*F31 =SUM(B36:F36)
0.2 0.133333 0.26666667 0.266667 0.133333
B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Expected payoff
A1 0.6 -0.4 2.93333333 2.133333 1.2 6.466667
A2 1.8 0.8 1.6 1.866667 1.6 7.666667
A3 1.6 2.666667 3.2 3.2 1.333333 12
A4 1.8 0.266667 -0.8 1.333333 0.4 3

By the criterion of the maximum payoff value, the option A2 has to be selected and it has the highest payoff value of 7.6667

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