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Suppose an entrepreneur wants to start a new business and must successfully complete 7 projects. The...

Suppose an entrepreneur wants to start a new business and must successfully complete 7 projects. The odds of each project succeeding is nine in ten. The probability of each project succeeding is independent of each other. The entrepreneur must successfully complete each project to survive in the industry. What are the odds the entrepreneur succeeds? Why might many believe that success is more likely than failure even though it is not?

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Answer #1

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Success in industry = Success in all projects.

P(Success in industry) = P(Success in all projects)

Failure probability is more than that of success in industry in actual.

Most people think that success is more likely than failure because they tend to think on surface level being myopic and consider huge probability of success of each project. Hence, error occurs.

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