Question

complete the chart

yuui class exercise yi due. Forecasts Naïve SES Time Series Two period Moving average Three period Moving average with alpha = Week Or Actuals 10/2/2016 841 10/9/2016 975 10/16/2016 895 | 10/23/2016 | 1025

Answer 1

1) Forecasts using Naive method - According to Noive method, the fore cast for the next period will be the actual value of the current period. Week Actual Forecast ( Naive) | 10/2/2016 841 | 10/9/2016 | 975 I 841 10/16/2016 895 975 10/23/2016 895 110/30/2016 1025 1025 2) Two period moving average To calculate two period moving average, we have to calculate average of last two periods to get the forecast of 3rd perid. That is forecast for 10/16/2016 is 841+ 915 = 908

Week 110/2/2016 10/9/2016 10/16/2016 10/23/2016 10/30/2016 Actuals | Two period moving average 841 975 895 (8414975) = 908 1025 (975 + 895 - 935 (895+1025 - 460 3) These period moving average. Calculate average of last 3 periods to get the forecast of 4th period. Week Actuals Thele period moving average 10/2/2016) 84) 10/9/2016 915 10/16/2016) 895 1841 +975+895) - 903.6667 10/23/2016 1025 | 10/30/2016] 1975+95 +1025) – 965 4) SES with a = 004 ,il-2=0.6 Week Actual Forecast (Ft) (A+) F t t = 2 At + (1-2) Ft 10/2/2016 841 110/9/2016 975 F2 = A - 841 1016/2016 895 F3 = 0.4 (A2) +0.6(2) = 0.4(975) +0.6 (841) = 894.6 10/23206 1025 F4 = 0.4(A3) +0.6 (F3) =04 (895) + 0.6 (894.6 : 894.76 10/30/2016 F5 = 0.4 (A4) +0.6 (F4) T = 0.4 (1025) +0.6(894,76) - 946.856

Naive Two period Three period SES with moving moving alpha=014 Taverage average Time Week Series (or Actuals 10/2/2016 841 110/9/2016 975 10/16/2016 895 11 10/23/2016 1025 [10/30/2016 841 1 975 1908 895 935 1025 960 841 894,6 903.67 1894.76 965 946,856