Procedure
Four different colors of beads, representing four species of bacteria, all possible residents of the microbiome, will be utilized. The species differ naturally in their resistance to a particular antibiotic. Three different antibiotic treatment regimens will be modeled:
Your initial population of bacteria is represented as follows:
Thus the species vary in the concentration of antibiotic and/or the duration of exposure necessary to kill them. At the beginning of each “day:”
the number in their respective cups would be doubled. On Day 4, only Species 4 is not susceptible, so that population would be the only one to be doubled.
Regimens
of the total number of microbes is removed randomly at the start of each day. Following that, all species will double in number as antibiotic is no longer present.
Questions
When we use the normal course of antibiotics and follow the doctor's order exactly, on the eigth day of tge antibiotic course, all the species of bacteria along with the pathogenic species 4 would be removed completely from the body. But as in regimen 1 when the antibiotic is discontinued in day 5, species 1,2,3 and also 4 would double in number increasing in population every single day with species 4 causing pathogenecity. If however according to the regiman 2 when day 3 of the antibiotic course has been skipped, the pathogenic load would increase. Even if the antibiotic course is now started again, it would take a total of 12 days to remove the species 4 completely from the body.
The data can be summarised as follows. Table 1 represent the number of species 1,2,3 and 4 if normal course of antibiotics if followed according to the doctor's orders and all the given criteria are met.
Day | Species 1 | Species 2 | Species 3 | Species 4 |
0 | 40-3=37 | 30-3=27 | 20-2=18 | 10-2=8 |
1(10% population removed by body's natural immunity. Also only Species 1 is susceptible and the rest are not susceptible. Those who are susceptible, their number is reduced to half but those non susceptible will be doubled.) | 17 | 50 | 32 | 12 |
2(10% population removed by body's immune immunity. Also Species 1 and 2 are susceptible and the rest are non susceptible) | 7 | 24 | 58 | 20 |
3( 10% of the population are removed by body's natural immunity. Also Species 1, 2 and 3 are susceptible while 4 is not susceptible) | 2 | 11 | 28 | 36 |
4 (10% of the population is removed by body's natural immunity. Also all the Species are susceptible) | 0 | 5 | 13 | 17 |
5(10% removal by body's natural immunity and half the number of each Species removed by antibiotic susceptibility) | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
6( the above condition prevails) | 0 | 0 | 3 |
4 |
7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Now if antibiotic course is skipped on the day 3, the whole scenario of the population load of the bacteria would change and the antibiotics have to be continued for much longer time to remove the pathogenic species 4 completely from the body. The following table represents the condition if antibiotic is skipped on day 3 the number of each Species would vary from the original table
Day | Species 1 | Species 2 | Species 3 | Species 4 |
0 | 37 | 27 | 18 | 8 |
1 | 17 | 50 | 32 | 12 |
2 | 7 | 24 | 58 | 20 |
3( when antibiotic is skipped which would reboot the whole system doubling the population of each species after 10% removal by the body's natural immunity) | 8 | 42 | 110 | 36 |
4( thw whole population of different species of bacteria would follpw the day 1 of the antibiotic course when only Species 1 is susceptible with its population being reduced to half while the rest of the Species would double because of non susceptible nature after 10% removal by body's natural immunity.) | 0 | 68 | 206 | 58 |
5. (Species. 2 is susceptible whilethe rest are not) | 0 | 29 | 390 | 94 |
6(Species 2 and 3 are susceptible while 4 is not) | 0 | 6 | 187 | 154 |
7(Species 4 also become susceptible) | 0 | 0 | 86 | 72 |
8 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 32 |
9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Thus, the table can be studied to understand how skipping the antibiotic for a single day can increase the bacterial load in the body causing pathogenecity of the Species 4 which would require intake of antibiotics for a much longer duration.
If however the antibiotic course is discontinued on day 5 of the organinal antibiotic course, the number of bacteria of all Species 2, 3 and 4 would increase to 8,24 and 32 and would increase to double their number every single day if antibiotics are not started again.
Procedure Four different colors of beads, representing four species of bacteria, all possible residents of the...
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