Question

DATA: Gassins These data show the number of palons of gasoline sold by a gasoline distributor in Bennington, Vermont, over Week Sales (1.000s of gallons) 1 17 21 N 3 19 4 22 5 18 6 16 2 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 Show the exponential smoothing forecasts using a=0.1. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Time Series Value Forecast Week 1 17 2. 21 19 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15

Please help. I'm stuck.

Answer 1

for exponential smoothing: next period forecast =α*last period actual+(1-α)*last period forecast

		exponential smoothing
month	value	forecast
1	17
2	21	17.00
3	19	17.40
4	23	17.56
5	18	18.10
6	16	18.09
7	20	17.88
8	18	18.10
9	22	18.09
10	20	18.48
11	15	18.63
12	22	18.27

a)

Oa=0.2 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MSE.

b)

α=0.1 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAE , so the results are not the same

c)

α =0.1 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAPE