Question

Question 12 5 pts Roulette is a game involving a wheel that contains numbers 1 through 36 along with O and 00. Eighteen numbers are red and eighteen numbers are black. The 0 and 00 are green. Players can place a bet on any of the numbers, specified ranges or the color of the number. A ball is then dropped onto the spinning wheel and the ball comes to rest on one of the 38 spots on the wheel. A potential player has been watching the game (assume the game is fair) and sees red has come up the last 7 times. She goes to place a large bet on red claiming it is hot and guaranteed to hit again. What is wrong with the player's logic? BIVA-A HTML Editor I EE537 x , DE TT 12pt

Answer 1

As each of slot on the roulette here is equally likely, therefore the probabiltiy of getting a red on any slot here is computed as:

= n(Red) / n(Total)

= 18/38 = 9/19

Note that given that the red came on the last 7 games played, it is not necessary that there is a higher probability of red coming on the next game. This is because each trial of the roulette here is independent of each other. Therefore the probability of getting a red would still be 9/19 and not any higher due to red coming up in the last 7 times. Therefore the logic is flawed here.