Question

Question 17 (1 point) What will be the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) of the table below? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places, keep in decimal format) 6 Three period moving average Period sales(Smillions) Forecast Error Absolute Error Squared Error Abs Percent error 1 7 2 5 3 9 11 7.00 5 15.3 8.33 4 Your Answer: Answer Question 18 (1 point) Consider the following payoff table: DA: Decision Alternative. State of Nature Decision Alternative Good Bad Probabilities 0.4 0.6 DA1 5.21 -3.221 DA2 -5.40 11.60 DA3 10.40 3.75 DA4 4.06 6.33 What is the Expected value under perfect Information (EVUPI)? (Please keep 2 decimals for your answer)

Answer 1

Question 17:

We solve the given problem using POM-QM as shown below:

We enter the required data as shown below: We only enter the values for period where forecast is available:

5 6 Actual 11 15.3 Forecast 7 8.33

On solving, we get

Forecast Error 7 Actual 11 15.3 26.3 13.15 5 6 TOTALS AVERAGE 8.33 4 6.97 10.97 5.485 (Bias) Error 4 6.97 10.97 5.485 (MAD) Std err Error 2 16 48.581 64.581 32.29 (MSE) NA Pct Error 36.364% 45.556% 81.919% 40.96% (MAPE)

As seen from above, MAPE = 40.96

Question 18:

We solve the given problem using POM-QM as shown below:

We enter the required data as shown below:

Probabilities DA1 DA2 DA3 DA4 Good .4 5.21 -5.4 10.4 4.06 Bad .6 -3.22 11.6 3.75 6.33

On solving, we get

Good Bad Maximum Probabilities DA1 DA2 DA3 DA4 Perfect Information Perfect*probability Best Expected Value Exp Value of Perfect Info 4 5.21 -5.4 10.4 4.06 10.4 4.16 .6 -3.22 11.6 3.75 6.33 11.6 6.96 11.12 6.41 4.71

As seen from above, Expected Value under perfect information = Perfect Probability = 11.12

Answer: 11.12

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