Question

Expoling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being Wied. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the balot in a large town (voting population over 100.000) An extpol 200 voters indsat 4 voted for the referendum. How they are the results of your sample the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of a referendum is 0.527 Based on your rest, comment on the dangers of using poing to cal elections How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.527 The probability that tower than people voted for the referendum I. (Round to four decimal places as needed) Comment on the dangers of using expoling to collections. Choose the correct answer below. O A The result is unusual because the probability that is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is greater than 5%. Thus, it is not unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election est porting word is considered OB. The result is not use because the probability that is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is greater than 5%. Thus, it is not unusual for a wrong call to be made in election et poing one is considered OC. The result is not use the probability at Disqual to or more extreme hen he sample proportion is less than 5%. Thus, it is unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election red polling stone is considered D. The result is unusual because the probability that is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is less than 5%. Thus, it is unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if et poling store is considered

Answer 1

Given that X follows binomial distribution with n 200 and p = 0.52.

a) Given that Sample size = n = 200. He sp = 0.52 p(1-p) Op 0.52 (1-0.52) 200 = 0.0353 n Now we have to find P(X < 94). P(X < 94) = P (*< 200) = P < 0.47) P(P - Hp < 0.47 – 0.52) =P P O op = P(Z < -1.42) р-р 0.47-0.52 0.0353 -0.0778 :: P(X<94) = 0.0778

b) Now we have to write the conclusion. An unusual event has a probability less than or equals to 0.05. P(X < 94) = 0.0778 >0.05 Conclusion: so it would not be unusual, since the probability is 0.0778 greater than 0.05. .. Option(B) is the answer.

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