Question

in 5000 words discusses the global and South African potential of the nuclear fusion technology

Answer 1

Here we will discusses the global and south african potential of the nuclear fusion technology.Electricity consumption in South Africa has been growing rapidly since 1980 and the country is part of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), with extensive interconnections. Total installed generating capacity in the SAPP countries is about 67 GWe, of which over 80% is South African¹,mostly coal-fired, and largely under the control of the state utility Eskom.

In 2017 the country produced 255 TWh, this being 227 TWh (89%) from coal, 14 TWh (6%) from nuclear, 8.4 TWh (3%) from solar and wind, and 5 TWh from hydro. In 2017 the country had net exports of 7 TWh². Consumption was 197 TWh in 2017, about 4500 kWh per capita³. Eskom supplies about 95% of South Africa's electricity and approximately 45% of Africa's. South Africa's installed capacity was 51 GWe as of 2017, of which coal-fired stations accounted for about 45 GWe.

Towards the end of March 2020, electricity demand in South Africa fell by around one-third as a result of the government lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. Eskom has taken a number of generating units offline, including unit 2 of the Koeberg nuclear plant, as a response. Koeberg 2 was scheduled to return to service by 30 April.

In August 2018 the South African government announced that it had abandoned plans to build up to 9600 MWe of new nuclear capacity by 2030. The draft Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) 2018 was an update of that issued in 2010, and despite endorsing the role of nuclear power did not include any new nuclear capacity by 2030. However, IRP 2019, released in October 2019, called for the country to construct two small modular nuclear reactors by 2030. The document also called for the completion of a 20-year lifetime extension at the Koeberg plant to ensure continued energy security beyond 2024.

IRP 2010 had outlined a required 52 GWe of new capacity by 2030, with nuclear to provide at least 9.6 GWe of that.

In May 2020, South Afria's Department of Mineral Resources and Energy stated that it was to begin working on a roadmap for the procurement of 2500 MWe of new nuclear capacity. It would consider all options, including small modular reactors.

Operating South African power reactors

Reactor	Type	Net capacity	First power	Planned closure
Koeberg 1	PWR	930 MWe	April 1984	2024
Koeberg 2	PWR	900 MWe	July 1985	2025
Total (2)		1830 MWe

Nuclear industry development in South Africa

South Africa's main coal reserves are concentrated in Mpumalanga in the northeast, while much of the load is on the coast near Cape Town and Durban. Moving either coal or electricity long distance is inefficient, so it was decided in the mid-1970s to build some 1800 MWe of nuclear capacity at Koeberg near Cape Town.

The Koeberg plant was built by Framatome (now Areva) and commissioned in 1984-85. It is owned and operated by Eskom and has twin 900 MWe class (970 & 940 MWe gross) pressurised water reactors (PWRs), the same as those providing most of France's electricity. Stress tests similar to those in the EU were carried out in 2011 with IAEA help. The government plans to extend Koeberg’s operating life from 30 to 40 years, and Eskom solicited tenders for six new steam generators to be installed at Koeberg about 2017-18, aligned with planned maintenance. In August 2014 it awarded the contract to Areva, despite protests from Westinghouse. IRP 2018 states that the 1.8 GWe of capacity at Koeberg is expected to operate until 2045-2047.

Due to acute water shortages in the region, Eskom announced in May 2017 that it would install a small desalination plant at Koeberg. It will produce water solely for the plant initially. Also, Eskom has agreed to support the Cape Town authorities if they choose to progress plans to install a small-scale desalination unit for municipal use at the Koeberg site. It would produce 2,500 to 5,000 m³/d, as a demonstration plant for a larger project.

New nuclear capacity

In October 2019, the South African government released its latest Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), the document that outlines the country’s official energy policy. IRP 2019 calls for the country to start planning for the construction of two small modular nuclear power reactors by 2030. A draft IRP released a year earlier had excluded new nuclear before 2030, but the 2019 IRP indicates that plans were reintroduced due to concerns over security of supply.

Proposed South African power reactors: IRP 2019

Power plant	Type	Gross capacity MWe	First power
?	SMR	2 x 500	Before 2030

In 2006 the government of South Africa announced that it was considering building a further conventional nuclear plant, possibly at Koeberg, to boost supplies in the Cape province. Since then, numerous proposals have been put forward for new capacity, as outlined below.

In early 2007, the Eskom board approved a plan to double generating capacity to 80 GWe by 2025, including construction of 20 GWe of new nuclear capacity so that nuclear contribution to power would rise from 5% to more than 25% and coal's contribution would fall from 87% to below 70%. The new program would start with up to 4 GWe of PWR capacity to be built from about 2010, with the first unit commissioned in 2016. The environmental assessment process for the so-called 'Nuclear-1' project considering five sites, and selection of technology was to follow in 2008. Areva's EPR and Westinghouse AP1000 were short-listed. Areva headed a consortium of South African engineering group Aveng, the French construction group Bouygues and EDF which submitted a bid to supply two 1600 MWe EPR units. Westinghouse matched this with a bid of three 1134 MWe AP1000 units. The Westinghouse-led consortium included The Shaw Group and the South African engineering firm Murray & Roberts.

Areva and Westinghouse also offered to build the full 20 GWe – with a further ten large EPR units or 17 AP1000 units by 2025. This would have been coupled with wider assistance for the local nuclear industry, in the Westinghouse case including development of the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (Westinghouse was an investor in the PBMR company and was then sponsoring the design in the USA – see section on PBMR below). However, in December 2008, Eskom announced that it would not proceed with either of the bids from Areva and Westinghouse, due to lack of finance, and the government then confirmed a delay of several years⁵.

In IRP 2010, nuclear prospects were revived, for 9600 MWe, supplying 23% of the electricity. In November 2011 the National Nuclear Energy Executive Coordination Committee (NNEECC) was established as the authority for decision-making, monitoring, and general oversight of the nuclear energy expansion program. An IAEA Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) was carried out in 2013.

Although IRP 2010 included six new 1600 MWe reactors coming online in 18-month intervals from 2023, Eskom said that it would be looking for lower-cost options than the earlier AP1000 or EPR proposals, and would consider Generation II designs from China (perhaps CPR-1000) or South Korea (perhaps OPR). The capital cost per installed MWe of a CPR-1000 was said to be about half that of an AP1000 or EPR.

Early in 2011 Areva stepped up its involvement with the Nuclear Energy Corporation of South Africa (Necsa), and early in 2013 Rosatom declared its interest in bidding. Bids were expected to be called early in 2014 so that the contractor/vendor could be on site in 2016, with a view to 2023 operation of the first unit. Initially about 30% local content was expected in the project, rising to 40% later.

In October 2013 Westinghouse signed an agreement with the Sebata Group of engineering companies to prepare for 'potential construction' of new nuclear plants in South Africa.

In November 2013 Necsa signed a broad agreement with Russia's NIAEP-Atomstroyexport and its subsidiary Nukem Technologies, to develop a strategic partnership including nuclear power plants and waste management, with financial assistance from Russia. It is uncertain just what this means, but Rosatom said that it “offers South Africa to build the entire process chain of nuclear power plant construction and operation.” “The strategic partnership implies joint implementation of the national nuclear power development program of South Africa. The key project is construction of new nuclear power plants with the Russian VVER reactors totaling 9.6 GW (up to eight power units) in South Africa."

In September 2014 Rosatom signed an agreement with South Africa’s energy minister to advance the prospect of building up to 9.6 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2030. The minister said: “This agreement opens up the door for South Africa to access Russian technologies, funding, infrastructure, and provides proper and solid platform for future extensive collaboration." It was expected to involve some $10 billion in local supply chain provision, with localisation of up to 60%. Necsa later said that the new agreement "initiates a preparatory phase for the procurement process for the new nuclear build in South Africa. Similar agreements will be signed with other vendor countries that have expressed an interest in assisting South Africa with the build program...No vendor country has been chosen yet and no technology has been decided. The agreement refers only to what Russia could provide if chosen.” Rusatom Overseas confirmed the likelihood of a Russian government loan, and said that the build-own-operate (BOO) model was preferable. OKB Gidropress and NIAEP-ASE subsequently presented the VVER-TOI design as appropriate, each unit 1255 MWe gross, 1115 MWe net. The reported cost would be $6 billion for the first two units.

In October 2014 a nuclear cooperation agreement with France was signed. The energy minister said, "This paves the way for establishing a nuclear procurement process." Areva welcomed the agreement, and said that it was ready to support the development of new South African nuclear projects, “notably through its Generation III+ EPR reactor technology."

In November 2014 a similar inter-governmental cooperation agreement was signed with China. The energy ministry said that the agreement "initiates the preparatory phase for a possible utilization of Chinese nuclear technology in South Africa." Three further agreements in December were between Necsa and China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC) to establish a cooperative partnership supporting the country’s nuclear industry, between China’s State Nuclear Power Technology Corp (SNPTC), the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and South Africa's Standard Bank Group with a view to financing new nuclear plants, and between Necsa and SNPTC for training South African nuclear professional staff. In February 2015 Necsa signed a further skills development and training agreement with SNPTC and China General Nuclear Power Corp (CGN), funded up to 95% by China. CGN has had an office in Johannesburg since 2010.

In March 2014 it was reported that China’s main nuclear power companies were lining up to bid for a $93 billion contract to build six reactors by 2030. China’s Ministry of Commerce reported that negotiations towards a nuclear cooperation agreement were proceeding. The energy minister said that this could involve the joint marketing and supply of nuclear energy products along with infrastructure funding to promote nuclear power developments across the region. Chinese industry officials in December 2015 expressed confidence in securing the $80 billion order for CAP1400 units, though the first of these in China was not yet under construction.

The environmental impact assessment (EIA) process initiated earlier in 2006 confirmed the selection of three possible sites for the next nuclear power units: Thyspunt, Bantamsklip, and Duynefontein, the last of which is very near the existing Koeberg nuclear plant. All are in the Cape region and were subject to further assessment. A draft environmental impact report (EIR) was published in March 2010 recommending the Thyspunt site in Eastern Cape province near Oyster Bay, Jeffrey’s Bay and a few kilometres west of Cape St Francis. Bantamsklip is east of Cape Town near Gansbai. A final EIR was to be submitted to the Department of Environmental Affairs early in 2011. In March 2016 Eskom submitted site licence applications to NNR for both Thyspunt and Duynefontein to construct and operate "multiple nuclear installations (power reactors) and associated auxiliary nuclear installations. In December 2016 the SA Council for Geoscience confirmed the geological and geotechnical suitability of Thyspunt. In October 2017 the Department of Environmental Affairs authorised 4000 MWe nuclear capacity to be built at either site.

The president’s annual state-of-the-nation address in February 2015 reaffirmed the IRP 2010 9.6 GWe target with the first unit on line in 2023 and said that bids would be sought from the USA, China, France, Russia and South Korea. In May, the energy minister said that the procurement process for the new nuclear power plant would begin by September, and she expected that a strategic partner would be selected by March 2016. Early in June Eskom ceded control of the new build programme to the Department of Energy.

Following cabinet approval in December 2015, the Department of Energy issued its request for proposals (RFP) for 9600 MWe of nuclear power capacity. Five reactor vendors were invited to make proposals: Rosatom, SNPTC, KEPCO, EDF/Areva and Westinghouse. Proposals should specify reactor design, the degree of localization, financing, and price. Funding would be decided following responses to this, and would be in line with IRP 2010. Necsa stressed in September 2016 that the field was wide open and that an initial contract might be for up to three PWR units, about one-third of the total, with an operating reference plant in the country of origin. It did not want a BOO arrangement or a turnkey contract, but favoured a build-own-transfer model such as in the UAE. Eskom said that there was a high level of interest in response to the December 2015 request. Formal responses were due by the end of April 2017, but in December 2016 the Treasury withdrew authorization for the RFP, and toned it down to a non-binding request for information (RFI) instead, handled by Eskom.

Then, on procedural grounds, in April 2017 the Western Cape high court set aside the intergovernmental nuclear cooperation agreements with Russia, USA and South Korea, along with approvals by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) of two ministerial determinations concerning the procurement of 9600 MWe of nuclear capacity. The ministerial determination signed in November 2013 and gazetted in December 2015 for a 9.6 GW nuclear new build program in South Africa was declared invalid. The ministerial determination of December 2016 appointing Eskom as the procuring agent for the nuclear new build was set aside, as was Eskom’s RFI of December 2016.

While raising issues concerning the role of government to set policy, the powers of the energy minister, and the separation of powers between the executive and judiciary, the Minister for Energy acknowledged that the government needed to start its processes afresh in conjunction with NERSA, justifying the need for the nuclear program. The CEO of Eskom was replaced, and much of the board resigned. Coincidentally, the country moved into recession, further compromising Eskom’s financial health.

The updated draft IRP published in November 2016 revised downwards the nuclear build target in its base case to 6.8 GWe coming online 2037 to 2041, and 20.4 GWe by 2050 when nuclear contributes 30% of electricity from 14% of capacity, compared with coal 31% from 18%. In 2050, 37.4 GWe of wind contributes 18% of supply, and 17.6 GWe of solar PV contributes 6.5%. The report notes that the final updated IRP will differ from the base case due to the impact of a number of scenarios under consideration. For example, under the carbon budget scenario, new nuclear is likely to come online around 2026. Eskom will continue to proceed with its request for proposals at the 9.6 GWe level, and anticipates levelised generation cost of R 1000/MWh. In April 2017, the new finance minister said that the government would “implement the [nuclear] program at the scale and pace the country can afford” on the basis of the IRP.

In August 2018, the new administration released a draft IRP that does not foresee any new nuclear capacity before 2030. Post-2030, the draft IRP calls for detailed technical, cost and economic benefit analysis of "other clean technologies such as clean coal technology, nuclear and others."