Question

in 4000 words Assesses the evolution and maturity of the fusion technology, using the S-curve model or similar

Answer 1

Macro-level evolution as a function of time can be applied to four descriptors to plot the maturity of a technology and thereby indicate the primary course for maintaining technological supremacy. This pattern of design evolution is based on a primary discovery of Altshuller: the evolution of a product or technology parallels the micro-evolution of biological systems (the biological s-curve). Researching data relevant to critical performance criteria of a technology, the number of inventions in this technological field, the levels of the aforementioned inventions, and the profitability of the primary resultant of the technology in question will allow interpolation and correlation of data that will indicate the resultant location on the s-curve. The derived location on the curve (pregnancy, birth, childhood, growth, maturity, or decline) will indicate to the technology management what posture should be assumed: further investment in the current technology, stasis, or various levels of research and development for a technology that will replace the current technology, post decline. A careful study will yield valuable information based on data and the statistical analysis of this data in light of the Theory of Directed Evolution. This unique ability of the theory of innovative problem solving demonstrates its versatility and power concerning design and development.

A reduction to practice of this theory will be demonstrated by the presentation of a case study concerning the direction of hermetic technology. The methods of obtaining the data, the methods of analysis, the raw and post analysis data, as well as the s-curve plot will be presented. Management’s decisions as well the resultants of those decisions will be presented (e.g., research and development conducted according to various patterns of evolution: increased ideality, the application of limited additional resources, etc). The theories ability to assist in the generation of intellectual property will be demonstrated by the presentation of a patentable technical evolution of the current technology that resulted in new products that will increase capabilities as well as market shares for the organization well into the 21^st century.

Evolution in stages is a macrolevel methodology aimed at the maturity mapping of an existing technology. The stages of the S-curve are pregnancy, birth, childhood, adolescence, maturity, and decline. Four curves plot the maturity of a technology from different perspectives: performance, level of inventions, number of inventions, and profitability, see Figure 1.0. The interpolation of these individual curves gives the analyst an indication of the technologies location on the S-curve. Hermetic sealing technology was selected as a prospect for maturity mapping due to recent strategic losses in the market by a major aerospace manufacturer. This once prominent technology comprised a large percentage of unit profits but had declined in profitability for the last several years.