The temperatures in Philadelphia for the past week are noted below, alongside a forecast. Which method,...
The temperatures in Philadelphia for the past week are noted below, alongside a forecast. Which method, 2 period moving average or naive produces a better forecast based on MAD?
Actual Forecast
Today 102 100
Yesterday 99 95
Today - 2 97 95
Today - 3 94 90
Today - 4 89 85
Homework Answers
Two period moving average is the average of previous period actual data
Mean absolute error
MAD = 4.667
Naive method:
Forecast for the present period = Actual data of the previous period.
MAD= 3.250
naive produces a better forecast based on MAD
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