Calculating Expected Monetary Value of not hiring expert:
Total EMV = EMV for 24 hours + EMV for 12 hours
EMV for 24 hours = 90000*0.5+ (-45000)*0.5 = 22500
EMV for 12 hours = 50000*0.5+ (-20000)*0.5 = 15000
As the maximum EMV is that of 24 hours, Decision at Node A: Zarif should open for 24 hours if he is not hiring expert and EMV for this is 22500
Calculating the Expected Monetary Value of Hiring Expert:
EMV at node G = 90000*0.7+ (-45000)*0.3 = 49500
EMV at node H = 50000*0.7+ (-20000)*0.3 = 29000
EMV at node E = 49500
EMV at node I = 90000*0.38+ (-45000)*0.62 = 6300
EMV at node J = 50000*0.38+ (-20000)*0.62 = 6600
EMV at node F = 6600
EMV at node B = 0.6*EMV at node E+0.4*EMV at node F- Charge by expert = 0.6*49500+0.4*6600-8000 = 24340
The final decision:
EMV from Node A = 22500
EMV from Node B = 24340
The final decision is Zarif should hire the expert and open for 24 hours if the demand is high and open for 12 hours if the demand is low.
ii. The worth of sales expert's advise = 24340
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