Question

46. Consider the sales for six consecutive weeks for Sam’s Strawberries. The sales are in “flats” sold.

       Week              Sales

        1                   16

        2                   18

        3                   14

        4                   10

        5                   20

        6                   22

I just need the answer of E . E problem

a.   Using a moving average with AP = 3, forecast the sales for weeks four through six.

What is the forecast for week 6?

14.7

b) Use a weighted moving average with weights of .5 (most recent), .4, and .1 (oldest) to predict the sales for weeks four through six.

What is the forecast for week 5?

12.4

c) Use the naïve approach to predict the sales for weeks four through six.

What is the forecast for week 4?

14

d) Use exponential smoothing with alpha = .3 to forecast sales for weeks four through six.

What is the forecast for week 4?

Use week 1 FC value of 10

You have to calculate FC for week 2 onwards.

You should use the formula

Y FC (t+1) = alpha(Y Act t) + (1 – alpha) Y FC t

=> Y (FC t+1) = Y (FC t) + alpha(Y Act t - Y FC t)

where

FC = Forecast

ACT = Actual

t = current week

t+1= next week

e.g. F2= 10 + .3(16-10) = 11.8

*You should already know (not needed here)

Y Act t - Y FC t = Forecast Error for period t

13.8

e) Use MAE to pick the best of the four forecasting methods used in a) through d).

What is the lowest MAE?

Enter response with 2 decimal places (e.g. 1.23)

​Hint:

Find the FC for weeks 4, 5 and 6 using each method.

Find FE ( Absolute Error) for each week. and divide by 3 to find the mean (Mean Absolute Error). e.g.

		MA
Week	ACT	FC	FE
4	10	16.0	6.0
5	20	14.0	6.0
6	22	14.7	7.3
Total			19.3

MAE MA:    19.3/3 = 6.43

Likewise you find Absolute FE = Absolute (FC - ACT). Find Average. Use the lowest value.

I need help number E?

Answer 1

Solution :

Naive forecast is better.