1. B. 9.0
FORECAST = F(T-1) + (ALPHA * (A(T-1) - F(T-1)), A = ACTUAL DEMAND, F = FORECAST, (T-1) = PREVIOUS PERIOD
FORECAST 2 = 80 + (0.1 * (85 - 80) = 80.5
FORECAST 3 = 80.5 + (0.1 * (88 - 80.5) = 81.25
FORECAST 4 = 81.25 + (0.1 * (91 - 81.25) = 82.23
FORECAST 5 = 82.23 + (0.1 * (96 - 82.23) = 83.61
PERIOD |
ACTUAL DEMAND |
FORECAST |
DEVIATION(D - F) |
ABS DEVIATION |
1 |
85 |
80 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
88 |
80.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
91 |
81.25 |
9.75 |
9.75 |
4 |
96 |
82.23 |
13.77 |
13.77 |
SIGMA |
36.02 |
36.02 |
MAD = SUM(ABS ERROR) / N, N = 4
MAD = 36.02 / 4 = 9.01
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