Question

3.) BLUE HILL TEMPERATURES BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY 2019 MEAN TEMPERATURES 2019 Temperature 1891-2010 Mean unumunun TEMPERATURE (DEG F) IND JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YEAR POST267 27 37 73 74 75 7.5 34 519 CAN SEP DEPARTURE 1.0 2.8 0.3 2.6 0.9 1.0 4.3 2.4 2.2 * Third warmesty record, a.) A meteorologist measures temperatures daily at the Blue Hill Observatory. The long-term, monthly average temperatures are shown in black. Red bars show months that are warmer than the average while blue bars show months that were cooler. What does this record demonstrate? How might you use this data as evidence of global warming? What arguments could someone make to claim that this data does not indicate global warming? (4 points) b.) What additional arguments or measurements would you add to convince this person that global warming is occurring? (2 points) c.) What are the monthly average temperatures in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada? (Please list your source). How do these compare to the Blue Hill data? (4 points)

Answer 1

• The data shows us that there is on an average 1.9º increase over the year for the months measured.
• The data also shows us that 8 out of nine months that have been measured for temperature in 2019 show an increase in temp. compared to the long-time average for the respective months, while only one month shows a decrease in temperature.

So it is possible to conclude that there is a temperature anomaly in the given study area for the year 2019, where there is an increase in temperature compared to long term avg.

This data can be used as evidence for global warming because we notice that there is an average increase in temperature compared to the long-term average. And it is also not just an avg increase, the increase is noticed for 8/9 months measured.

Note: Only average is not sufficient since if 4 months showed an increase and 4 showed a decrease in temperature, for example

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Avg
+1.8	-1.5	+0.5	-0.8	+2.0	-1.5	+2.1	-2.0	0.075

  In this example the increase is positive, but the variation, in general, does not show hotter temperature. 50% of the months were hotter and 50% cooler.

• There are some valid arguments against this data being evidence for global warming.

1. The data is not ‘global’; this data can prove that the study area, Bluehill observatory, is getting hotter, not the globe.
2. The increase might just be a natural anomaly that happened to take place this year only, and may not be true for any other reason.

• Some not so valid arguments can also be made.

1. There is one month colder than the average proving that it is not getting hot.
2. four months are yet to be measured, they might be cold enough to change the average.

• We need to acquire the temperature data for the past several years.
• There needs to be more global data available too.

Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
Daily mean ºC (ºF)	4.8 (40.6)	5.9 (42.6)	7.6 (45.7)	10.0 (50.0)	13.2 (55.8)	15.9 (60.6)	18.1 (64.6)	18.3 (64.9)	15.4 (59.7)	11.1 (52.0)	7.1 (44.8)	4.8 (40.6)	11.0 (51.8)

(Based on data collected by Dept. of the environment, Canada
Data collected between 1971-2000
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Vancouver#Temperatures)

From the table, it is apparent that the climate in Blue Hill Observatory is generally cooler than in Vancouver.