Question

Fast Creek is a city in south central Saskatchewan located along the
Trans-Canada Highway. Fast Creek has a population of just over
27 000 residents and is a regional hub for the many smaller towns
and hundreds of farms in the surrounding area. Fast Creek is a transportation
and industrial centre, and has several federal and provincial
government offices.
Fast Creek is also a sports centre, and its junior hockey team,
the Fast Creek Lightning, have a long history of success in the
Central Hockey League but have not won a major trophy in close
to 10 years. To reach their long-desired goal of winning the league
championship and reaching the Memorial Cup final, the Lightning
have hired the legendary Scotty Beauchamp as head coach.
One of Beauchamp’s demands on joining the Lightning had
been a new arena. With attendance increasing, Lightning executives
and city officials began to face the issue head-on. After six months
of study, much political arm wrestling, and some serious financial
analysis, Keith MacLennan, owner of the Lightning, had reached a
decision to expand the capacity at the current arena.

Adding over a thousand seats, including many luxury boxes,
would not please everyone. The influential Beauchamp had argued
the need for a first-class arena, with state-of-the-art training facilities
and a palatial office appropriate for a future hall of fame coach.
But the decision was made, and everyone, including the coach,
would learn to live with it.
The job now was to get construction going immediately after
the 2016 season ended. This would allow exactly 270 days until the
2017 season opening game. The contractor, Hill Construction, signed
his contract. Bob Hill looked at the tasks his engineers had outlined
and looked MacLennan in the eye. “I guarantee the team will be
able to take to the ice on schedule next season,” he said with a sense
of confidence. “I sure hope so,” replied MacLennan. “The contract
penalty of $10 000 per day for running late is nothing compared to
what Coach Beauchamp will do to you if our opening game with
Saskatoon is delayed or cancelled.” Hill, sweating slightly, did not need to respond. In hockey-crazy Saskatchewan, Hill Construction
would be in trouble if the 270-day target was missed.
Back in his office, Hill again reviewed the data (see
Table 3.6) and noted that optimistic time estimates could be used
as crash times. He then gathered his foremen. “Folks, if we’re not
75% sure we’ll finish this stadium in less than 270 days, I want this
project crashed! Give me the cost figures for a target date of 250
days—also for 240 days. I want to be early, not just on time!”

Discussion Questions
1. Develop a network drawing for Hill Construction, and determine
the critical path. How long is the project expected to take?
2. What is the probability of finishing in 270 days? (Develop both an optimistic and pessimistic estimate of the probability in question)
3. If it is necessary to crash to 250 or 240 days, how would Hill do
so, and at what costs? As noted in the case, assume that optimistic
time estimates can be used as crash times.

Table 3.6 Fast Creek Lightning Project Activity Predecessor(s) Time Estimates (days) Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic 20 30 40 Crash Cost/Day $1500 3500 4000 1900 100 Description Bonding, insurance, tax structuring Foundation, concrete footings for boxes Upgrading box seating Upgrading walkways, stairwells, elevators Interior wiring, lathes Inspection approvals Plumbing Painting Hardware AC/metal workings Tile/carpet/windows Inspection Final detail work/cleanup 9500 0 2500 2000 2000 6000 60 4500

Answer 1

1.

A-30 G-30 150 150- H-20 18011802200bool 1 - 30 baobao L-30 beol B-60 F-0.1 1.1 K-01 E-30 90 119.9 149.9 (210 229.9) t = (tpesimista + 4. tprobable + toptimista)/6 Op? = (toptimista - tpesimista)?/6 tproyecto = ti = 260 11.11 100 69.44 136.11 2.77 0 2.77 11.11 44.44 0.444 [=camino critico Oproyecto = so = 319.43 i=camino critico 0 L 30 44.44

2.

Prob = (270 - tproyecto)/o proyecto = 0.56 → 71.226% < 75%

3.