Question

Excel Problem (to be used with the data in the Excel file):

Namata Appliances sells refrigerators. The model seen in the data file is relatively inexpensive. Weekly demand for this model is relatively stable though there is enough variation to challenge management at Namata. Sometimes demand is lower than forecast, so that inventory costs are high. Other times the forecasts are too low. When this happens, on-hand inventory is not sufficient to meet customer demand and Namata requires expedited shipments to keep customers happy. This nearly wipes out Namata's profit margin on the expedited units. Profits at Namata would almost certainly increase if demand could be forecast more accurately.

In the Excel file:

a) Create a 3-week moving average forecast for week 71. Label your answer in the file.

b) Calculate the 3-week moving average forecast for all possible weeks.

c) Calculate the MAD for all possible weeks. Formulas is provided below. Label your answer in the file.

d) Create a SINGLE graph of the actual demand and the 3-week moving average forecast.

e) Save and submit this file. We will be grading the work and answers in the Excel file.

              Week Sales1 459 494 429 470 460 458 480 469 478 460 480 437 442 449 444 437 456 457 434 457 407 396 376 367 367 372 336 327 3359 357 399 383 417 442 429 443 431 468 481 484 498 526 517 504 503 483 A90 468 486 493 506 499 479 491 484 450 500 488483 490 468 486 499 506 199 479 491 484 450 500 488 A52 498 498 447 452 485 442 483 484 467 500

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Answer #1

a)

3-week Moving Average Forecast for Week 71 = (Sales in Week 68 + Sales in Week 69 + Sales in Week 70) / 3

= ( 484 + 467 + 500) / 3

= 1451 / 3

= 483.67

b)

3-week Moving Average Forecast for Week (n + 3) = ( Sales in Week n + Sales in Week (n + 1) + Sales in Week (n+2)) /3

Therefore, the 3-week Moving Average Forecast Values are calculated as per below table:

Week Sales1 3 Week Moving Average Forecast
1 459
2 494
3 429
4 470 460.67
5 460 464.33
6 458 453.00
7 480 462.67
8 469 466.00
9 478 469.00
10 460 475.67
11 480 469.00
12 437 472.67
13 442 459.00
14 449 453.00
15 444 442.67
16 437 445.00
17 456 443.33
18 457 445.67
19 434 450.00
20 457 449.00
21 407 449.33
22 396 432.67
23 376 420.00
24 367 393.00
25 367 379.67
26 372 370.00
27 336 368.67
28 327 358.33
29 333 345.00
30 359 332.00
31 357 339.67
32 399 349.67
33 383 371.67
34 417 379.67
35 448 399.67
36 429 416.00
37 443 431.33
38 431 440.00
39 468 434.33
40 481 447.33
41 484 460.00
42 498 477.67
43 526 487.67
44 517 502.67
45 504 513.67
46 503 515.67
47 483 508.00
48 490 496.67
49 468 492.00
50 486 480.33
51 499 481.33
52 506 484.33
53 499 497.00
54 479 501.33
55 491 494.67
56 484 489.67
57 450 484.67
58 500 475.00
59 488 478.00
60 452 479.33
61 498 480.00
62 498 479.33
63 447 482.67
64 452 481.00
65 485 465.67
66 442 461.33
67 483 459.67
68 484 470.00
69 467 469.67
70 500 478.00
71 483.67

c)

MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) calculation is  as follows:

For each month, Error value has to be calculated.

Error = Sales - Forecast

Then, the Absolute Value of Error is calculated, ie the negative values of error shall be turned into positive values.

MAD = Mean value of Absolute Values of Error

MAD is calculated as per below table:

Week Sales1 3 Week Moving Average Forecast Error Absolute Value of Error
1 459
2 494
3 429
4 470 460.67 9.33 9.33
5 460 464.33 -4.33 4.33
6 458 453.00 5.00 5.00
7 480 462.67 17.33 17.33
8 469 466.00 3.00 3.00
9 478 469.00 9.00 9.00
10 460 475.67 -15.67 15.67
11 480 469.00 11.00 11.00
12 437 472.67 -35.67 35.67
13 442 459.00 -17.00 17.00
14 449 453.00 -4.00 4.00
15 444 442.67 1.33 1.33
16 437 445.00 -8.00 8.00
17 456 443.33 12.67 12.67
18 457 445.67 11.33 11.33
19 434 450.00 -16.00 16.00
20 457 449.00 8.00 8.00
21 407 449.33 -42.33 42.33
22 396 432.67 -36.67 36.67
23 376 420.00 -44.00 44.00
24 367 393.00 -26.00 26.00
25 367 379.67 -12.67 12.67
26 372 370.00 2.00 2.00
27 336 368.67 -32.67 32.67
28 327 358.33 -31.33 31.33
29 333 345.00 -12.00 12.00
30 359 332.00 27.00 27.00
31 357 339.67 17.33 17.33
32 399 349.67 49.33 49.33
33 383 371.67 11.33 11.33
34 417 379.67 37.33 37.33
35 448 399.67 48.33 48.33
36 429 416.00 13.00 13.00
37 443 431.33 11.67 11.67
38 431 440.00 -9.00 9.00
39 468 434.33 33.67 33.67
40 481 447.33 33.67 33.67
41 484 460.00 24.00 24.00
42 498 477.67 20.33 20.33
43 526 487.67 38.33 38.33
44 517 502.67 14.33 14.33
45 504 513.67 -9.67 9.67
46 503 515.67 -12.67 12.67
47 483 508.00 -25.00 25.00
48 490 496.67 -6.67 6.67
49 468 492.00 -24.00 24.00
50 486 480.33 5.67 5.67
51 499 481.33 17.67 17.67
52 506 484.33 21.67 21.67
53 499 497.00 2.00 2.00
54 479 501.33 -22.33 22.33
55 491 494.67 -3.67 3.67
56 484 489.67 -5.67 5.67
57 450 484.67 -34.67 34.67
58 500 475.00 25.00 25.00
59 488 478.00 10.00 10.00
60 452 479.33 -27.33 27.33
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