Question

was nominated (1976-2015)

Based on the output (including the graph) below, about how many nominations are needed to have a 20% chance of winning Best Picture?

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Logistic Regression - winners

Dependent variable: 1=won 0= loss

Factors: number of categories nominated

Estimated Regression Model (Maximum Likelihood)

		Standard	Estimated
Parameter	Estimate	Error	Odds Ratio
CONSTANT	-5.17048	0.737865
number of categories nominated	0.462202	0.0835516	1.58757

Analysis of Deviance

Source	Deviance	Df	P-Value
Model	38.9351	1	0.0000
Residual	172.834	226	0.9965
Total (corr.)	211.769	227

Percentage of deviance explained by model = 18.3857

Adjusted percentage = 16.4968

Likelihood Ratio Tests

Factor	Chi-Square	Df	P-Value
number of categories nominated	38.9351	1	0.0000

Answer 1

log (p/(1-p)) = -5.17048 + 0.4622 * x
here p = 0.2
hence
log(0.2/0.8) = -5.17048 + 0.4622 * x

solving x = 8.18

about 8 nomination

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