DEMAND | |
April | 71 |
May | 66 |
June | 91 |
July | 71 |
August | 96 |
September | 91 |
1. Using single exponential smoothing with α = 0.20 and
a September forecast = 49, calculate a forecast for October.
2.Using simple linear regression, calculate the trend line for the
historical data. Say the X axis is April = 1, May = 2, and
so on, while the Y axis is demand. (Round your
intercept value to the nearest whole number and slope value to 2
decimal places.)
3.Calculate a forecast for October using your regression
formula
PLEASE **STAR** YOUR FINAL ANSWER, THANK YOU
Answer 1=
Exponential smoothing forecasting = Ft = Ft-1 +α(At-1-Ft-1)
In the question, Ft-1 =49 At-1=91, α=0.2
Exponential smoothing forecasting for September = Ft = Ft-1 +α(At-1-Ft-1) =49+0.2*(91-49)=57.4
****Answer=57.4****
Answer 2=
x | y | xy | x^2 | y^2 | ||
1 | 71 | 71 | 1 | 5041 | ||
2 | 66 | 132 | 4 | 4356 | ||
3 | 91 | 273 | 9 | 8281 | ||
4 | 71 | 284 | 16 | 5041 | ||
5 | 96 | 480 | 25 | 9216 | ||
6 | 91 | 546 | 36 | 8281 | ||
Sum | 21 | 486 | 1786 | 91 | 40216 | |
|
||||||
b= 85/(17.5*1450)^0.5) | ||||||
b=0.5336 | ||||||
a=(1450/5)^0.5 | ||||||
b= (6*1789-21*486)/(6*91-21*21) | ||||||
b=5.03 | ||||||
a= (486*91-21*1786)/(6*91-21*21) | ||||||
a=64 | ||||||
Regression line y=64+5.03x |
So the answer is
****y=64+5.03x*****
Answer 3= Forcast for October,
put x=7 in y=64+5.03x
y=64+5.03*7
y=99.21
Answer= ***99.21**
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