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An outbreak of the fatal "CHANADRIAN" disease is occurring. It is a rare disease that affects...

An outbreak of the fatal "CHANADRIAN" disease is occurring. It is a rare disease that affects only 0.1% of the population but it highly contagious. A screening test has been developed that has specificity of 90% and sensitivity of 99%. If you undergo the screening test and it is positive what are the chances you have CHANADRIAN? What if you test negative?

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Answer #1

P(Disease) = 0.1% = 0.001

P(True positive rate) = Sensitivity = 99%

Thus, P(Disease | Positive) = 0.99

P(True negative rate) = Specificity = 90%

Thus, P(Disease | Negative) = 1 - 0.90 = 0.10

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