The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years
Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Demand | 7 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place).
Year | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecast |
c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.20. 0.35. and 0.45. using 0.45 for the most recent period provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12.
Year | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecast |
d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed using the 3-year moving average is 2 86 and for the 3-year weighted moving average is 3.08. Based on this information the better forecast is achieved using the approach
b) Using three year moving average,forecast from periods 4 through 12 are :
c) Using 3-year weighted moving average the forecast from period 4 through 12 are:
d) Based on the given information the better forecast is achieved using the three year moving average approach as it yields the lower Mean Absolute Deviation.
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years