"The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45 and 0.55 = __ miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)"
In weighted moving average, we determine the forecast as the sum of product of weights and the previous actual mileage. As we have to calculate the MAD, we will have 3 years of matched data or data where both forecast and actual will be available. These would be year 3, 4 and 5.
Forecast for year 3 = 0.55*3950+0.45*3100 = 3567.5.
As actual mileage for year 3 is 3500, absolute error is |3500-3567.5| = 67.5
Forecast for year 4 = 0.55*3500+0.45*3950 = 3702.5
As actual mileage for year 4 is 3850, absolute error is |3850-3702.5| = 147.5
Forecast for year 5 = 0.55*3850+0.45*3500 = 3692.5
As actual mileage for year 5 is 3700, absolute error is |3700-3692.5| = 7.5
Sum of all absolute errors = 67.5+147.5+7.5 = 222.5
Hence MAD = 222.5/3 = 74.2
"The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45...
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