Question

1. Give three examples from a personal experience of an illusory correlation, hindsight bias and/or overconfidence regarding yourself or other people. 2. How might a more scientific attitude help you avoid such errors?

Answer 1

1. It is very common to find a relationship between two variables which are not even related, and that's called illusionary bias, For example, If you went to a concert, and missed to hear your favorite song because you arrived there late and then when you were drinking coffee after concert and you spilled it all over yourself, and then you missed your flight. You will start to relate all these things and most probably will conclude that concerts are bad. But you won't think about all the times concerts went well, every time you didn't spill the coffee, every time you didn't miss the flight. It's just you are into illusionary biaseness.

For hindsight bias, a very common example is when your friends commit a mistake and you say to them after all has been done that I knew it, that it will go this way. I hope you also experience this every now and then.

Overconfidence is when you are extremely sure that you will win some competition and you ignore the fact that there are many other contestants having the potential to win and you are just overestimating your capabilities.

2. Definitely, a scientific attitude will avoid such things. A scientific approach makes you more rationale, it provokes you to ask questions to yourself and avoid arising of any irrational belief in the because it seeks for logic everywhere. And where there is no logic there is no possibility. Thats science.