Probability of rumour
There is a rumor floating around the office where you work that the company you work for is about to go bankrupt. The CEO (boss who knows the truth) at the company told a second person, who told a third person, who then told you. The CEO lies with probability 0.4, the second person lies with probability 0.1, the third lies with probability 0.8. You heard from the third person that the rumor is true, yet you know that it is false (from another reliable source). What is the probability that the CEO
lied to the second person?
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