Question

A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below Cinnamon Buns Cupcakes Day Blueberry Muffins 1E 14 12 2 31 16 16 33 16 4 31 48 22 21 5 39 23 16 6 30 12 7 32 23 36 22 4 8 17 29 24 19 10 32 24 10 11 38 25 12 31 2" 50 13 35 3C 18 14 33 31 15 15 34 33 13 a. Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate naive method. forecast is (Click to select) Blueberry Muffin The forecast is (Click to select) Cinnamon Buns The : The forecast is Cupcakes (Click to select) b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply? The use of sales data instead of demand implies that (Click select) adequately reflect (Click to select) We are assuming that no stock-outs occurred because demand equals sales if there are no shortages.

Answer 1

a)

Demand for Blueberry muffin is almost stable so basic naive method will be used and forecast is 34

Demand for Cinnamon Buns follows a trend so trend-adjusted Naive approach is to be used and forecast is 33+2 = 35 (As difference between period 15 and 14 demand is 33-31 = 2

Demand for Cupcakes follows experience seasonality so Seasonal-adjusted Naive approach is to be used and forecast is 50 (Demand peaks every 4th day and forecast for period 16 = 50)

b)

The use of sales data instead of demand implies that sales adequately reflect demand We are assuming that no stock-outs occurred because demand equals sales if there are no shortages.