Question

I don't really understand how to estimate revenue. I have been given revenues from previous years...

I don't really understand how to estimate revenue. I have been given revenues from previous years and I am being asked to estimate the revenue for FY2020 and explain my rationale. Please help thank you! Please show all relevant work so I can understand how you got to the answer. Thank yOU!

Year Revenue Collections
2002 $                      329,687
2003 $                      384,829
2004 $                      378,109
2005 $                      447,858
2006 $                      523,845
2007 $                      621,253
2008 $                      824,460
2009 $                      739,140
2010 $                      821,729
2011 $                  1,035,700
2012 $                      901,902
2013 $                      867,344
2014 $                      857,415
2015 $                      885,966
2016 $                      963,744
2017 $                  1,141,337
2018 $                  1,201,877
2019 $                  1,116,045
2020 ??????
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Answer #1

We can use simple moving average method to estimate the 2020 sales as it smooths the fluctuations in data and is dynamic.

Moving average method gives you the trend of data 3 year moving average has been calculated in excel

last moving average is the required estimate of sales in 2020

Year Sales 3 year Moving Average
2002 329687
2003 384829 364208
2004 378109 403599
2005 447858 449937
2006 523845 530985
2007 621253 656519
2008 824460 728284
2009 739140 795110
2010 821729 865523
2011 1035700 919777
2012 901902 934982
2013 867344 875554
2014 857415 870242
2015 885966 902375
2016 963744 997016
2017 1141337 1102319
2018 1201877 1153086
2019 1116045
2020 1153086

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