Question

1. You are given the following time-series of precipitation data for Dubai. Using the Moving Windows technique: (a) First plot your data. (b) Use overlapping 5-year windows, with the windows having 3 common years (for example if the first window is years 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 then the second window is years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006) and plot the 5-year moving averages. (c) Explain any pattern that you see. (d) Calculate the average of the series that is given and calculate and plot the deviation from the average Year Total Annual P (mm) 2000 28.18 2001 13.71 2002 25.2 2003 39.38 2004 66.55 2005 79.83 2006 102.36 2007 7.62 2008 135.61 2009 101.08 2010 122.69 2011 25.39 2012 52.05

Answer 1

Solution: (a) Plot data Year Total Annual P(mm) Vs Year 160 140 120 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 80 Total Annual P(mm) 28.18 13.71 25.2 39.38 66.55 79.83 102.36 7.62 135.61 101.08 122.69 25.39 52.05 Total Annual Precipitation(mm 40 20 0 1998 2000 2000 2004 2005 2008 2010 2012 2014 Year (b) 5 vear Average by Moving window technique Total Annual 5 year moving Year P(mm) average (mm) 2000 28.18 2001 13.71 2002 25.2 34.604 2003 39.38 2004 66.55 62.664 2005 79.83 2006 102.36 78.394 2007 7.62 2008 135.61 93.872 2009 101.08 2010 122.69 87.364 2011 25.39 2012 52.05

5 Year Moving average vs Year 5 Year Moving Average(mm) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200B 2009 2010 2011 Year From the above graph we can say that the 1) Precipitation value increases from 2002 to 2008 and shown a gradual decrease after 2008 2) Ava value of precipitation has high at 2008 year. The following graph shows the combined values Combined graph of Total annual and 5 Year Moving Average 160 140 120 Total annual precipitation(mm) 100 80 AM 60 -Seriesi --Series2 40 20 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 2006 Year Series 1 = Annual precipitation vs time Series 2 = 5 Year average precipitation vs time

(C) Standard deviation: i Mean 08) Average : 61.511mm ! Std. deviation {(x-2)^ ne! S Xi To fall Annual precipitation in mm ł Mean recipation no norg years. 28.18 – 61-50) fa (13-D = Std.deviation= 43.13
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