Suppose in an El-Nino year, number of floods per flood season is lambda (with lambda =...
Suppose in an El-Nino year, number of floods per flood season is lambda (with lambda = 20). In a regular year the number of floods per season is lambda3 (with lambda3 = 5). NOAA estimates the next year will be an El-Nino year with 60% chance, otherwise it will be a regular year (40% chance). A flood season last 2 months. Given that 15 floods have been observed in the first month of the flood season, what is the probability that no floods will be observed in the 2nd month?
Is modeled like this: P(N(1)-N(1/2) = 0 | N(1/2) = 15). How do I solve this probability?
NOTE* This is not asking given that there were 15 floods in the first month of the season, what is the probability that we are in an El-Nino year?
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Suppose in an El-Nino year, number of floods per flood season is
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