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Recently, a nurse commented that when a patient calls the medical advice line claiming to have...

Recently, a nurse commented that when a patient calls the medical advice line claiming to have the flu, the chance that he or she truly has the flu (and not just a nasty cold) is only about 4%. Of the next 25 patients calling in claiming to have the flu, let ? be the number of patients in the sample that actually have the flu.

Explain why ? can be treated as a binomial random variable.

• Specify (in words) which event would be defined as a “success”?

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In this scenario, the number of patients in the sample who actually have the flu, denoted as "?," can be treated as a binomial random variable. This is because each patient in the sample can be classified as either a success (having the flu) or a failure (not having the flu).

In a binomial random variable, there are two possible outcomes, success and failure, and each trial is independent of the others. In this case, each patient calling in claiming to have the flu can be considered as a separate trial.

The event defined as a "success" in this context would be a patient who actually has the flu. So, if a patient in the sample is diagnosed with the flu, it would be considered a success. Conversely, if a patient in the sample does not have the flu, it would be considered a failure.

The probability of success (having the flu) is given as approximately 4% or 0.04, and the probability of failure (not having the flu) would be the complement of this probability, which is 1 - 0.04 = 0.96.

By counting the number of patients in the sample who actually have the flu (?), we can observe the number of successes (patients with the flu) out of the 25 trials (25 patients calling in claiming to have the flu). Therefore, we can treat "?" as a binomial random variable with parameters n = 25 (number of trials) and p = 0.04 (probability of success).

This allows us to apply the properties and formulas associated with binomial distributions to analyze the probabilities and characteristics of the variable "?," such as calculating the mean, variance, and probabilities associated with specific outcomes.


answered by: Mayre Yıldırım
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