In an election, there was a male and a female candidate and voters were either Democrats or non-Democrats.
90% (.90) of the voters were Democrats, and 10% (.10) were non-Democrats.
20% (.20) of the Democrats voted for the female candidate.
45% (.45) of the non-Democrats voted for the female candidate.
You know that someone voted for the female candidate, and you are trying to figure out if they are a Democrat.
A. Which number in the problem is P(Democrat)?
B. Which number in the problem is P(~Democrat)?
C. Which number in the problem is P(Vote Female | Democrat)?
D. Which number in the problem is P(Vote Female|~Democrat)?
E. From the given values, compute P(Democrat & Vote Female).
F. From the given values, compute P(~Democrat & Vote Female).
G. For someone who voted for the female candidate, is it more likely that they are a Democrat or non-Democrat?
H. Refer to your answer on the previous question. How many times more likely is the option you selected, compared to the option you didn't select?
In an election, there was a male and a female candidate and voters were either Democrats...
Step by Step Bayes Theorem In an imagined survey of voters, you found 55 % of the voters were Democrats and the rest were Republicans. You also found 90 % of the Democrats voted President Obama but only 14 % of the Republicans did. 55%, or, P(D) 0.55. First some easy questions. You clearly know that the probability voter is a Democrat What is the probability a voter is a Republican, P(D')? What is the probability of somebody voting for...
In a given county, records show that of the registered voters, 45% are Democrats, 35% are Republicans, and 20% are Independents. In an election, 80% of the Democrats, 40 % of the Republicans, and 80% of the Independents voted in favor of a parks and recreation bond proposal. If a registered voter chosen at random is found to have voted in favor of the bond, what is the probability that the voter is a Republican? An Independent? A Democrat?
In a given county, records show that of the registered voters, 45% are Democrats, 40% are Republicans, and 15% are Independents. In an election, 70% of the Democrats, 30% of the Republicans, and 90% of the Independents voted in favor of a parks and recreation bond proposal. If a registered voter chosen at random is found to have voted in favor of the bond, what is the probability that the voter is a Republican? An Independent? A Democrat? The probability...
5) In a recent presidential election, 500 voters were surveyed and 350 of them said that they voted for the candidate who won. a. Construct a 96% confidence interval estimate of the percentage of voters who said they voted for the candidate who won. b. How many voters must they survey if they want 90% confidence that the sample proportion is in error by no more than 0.02?
b. It is known that 65% of all voters vote for political party A in the Municipal Elections. A random sample of 30 voters were called and asked for which political party they plan to vote in the upcoming Municipal Election.Let ?=the number of voters who vote for political party A in the Municipal Elections.1. Calculate the probability that 20 of the 30voters will vote for political party A in the Municipal election. (5)2. Calculate probability that more than 19...
just b 8. In a US senatorial election, 9 voters were randomly chosen from those who voted for a candidate from a conservative party, and 9 were chosen from those who voted for a liberal candidate. Their ages are given below. Conservative: 51, 76, 62, 55, 39, 43, 46, 49, 56 Liberal: 44, 62, 60, 51, 35, 41, 39, 39, 36 a) Test for equal variances between the two groups using a -0.05. b) Confirm your answer using R Give...
In a past election, the voter turnout was 69%. In a survey, 934 subjects were asked if they voted in the election. a. Find the mean and standard deviation for the numbers of voters in groups of 934. b. In the survey of 934 people, 695 said that they voted in the election. Is this result consistent with the turnout, or is this result unlikely to occur with a turnout of 69%? Why or why not? c. Based on these...
In a past election, the voter turnout was 66%. In a survey, 1121 subjects were asked if they voted in the election. a. Find the mean and standard deviation for the numbers of voters in groups of 1121. b. In the survey of 1121 people, 707 said that they voted in the election. Is this result consistent with the turnout, or is this result unlikely to occur with a turnout of 66%? Why or why not? c. Based on these...
M3_A5. A political polling organization has been hired to conduct a poll of likely voters prior to an upcoming election. Each voter is to be interviewed in person. It is known that he costs of interviewing different types of voters vary due to the difference in proportion within the population. The costs to interview males, for example, are $20 per Democrat, $18 per Republican, and $27 per Independent voter. The costs to interview female are $24, $22 and $28 for...
8.9 Ask More People. In the 2016 presidential pre-election surveys, ABC/Post sampled 740 likely voters during October 10-13, 2016, and asked if they were planning to vote for Clinton, and then asked the same question of a sample of 1135 likely voters taken from October 22-25, 2016. However, in their last survey taken November 3-6, 2016, just before the election held on November 8, 2016, they asked this question of a sample of 2220 likely voters. Why do you ABC...