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Calculate the probability the U.S. will incur a recession next year by application of this model....

Calculate the probability the U.S. will incur a recession next year by application of this model.

The formula follows: p = NORMSDIST (-.6045 - .7374* Spread). The spread is the percentage difference in yield between 10-year U.S. Treasury notes (0.96%) and 3-month U.S. Treasury bills (0.77%).

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