Question

For each of the following, indicate which hypothesis offers the best explanation.

1. Jeffrey went to sunrise coffee shop to work on his screenplay. But when he opened his

backpack, Jeffrey discovered in his horror that his laptop was missing. The backpack was on

Jeffrey’s back for the entire bus ride to the coffee shop, but he was in a hurry packing up his

stuff in his apartment this morning.

Explanation 1: A master thief stole the laptop out of Jeffrey’s backpack without him noticing.

Explanation 2: Jeffrey accidentally left his laptop in his apartment.

2. Entering the kitchen after putting his daughter down for a nap, Manuel is shocked to find the

pie he was letting cool on the stove has gone missing. Later, he finds a pie pan with a half-

eaten pie in his son’s room.

Explanation 1: Manuel’s son took the pie.

Explanation 2: Manuel’s daughter faked being asleep, took the pie, and put the half empty

pan in her brother’s room to frame him.

3. Richard won the election for class president despite being deeply unpopular at school and

running against the extremely popular and well-liked Stephanie. Some of Richard’s proposals

for what he wanted to do as president were well liked by people who heard about them, but

they weren’t well advertised. The counting of the votes was overseen by Richard’s close

friend Paul.

Explanation 1: Manuel received more votes in the election than Stephanie.

Explanation 2: Paul intentionally miscounted the votes so that Richard would win.

4. Richard won the election for class president despite not being very popular at school. He ran

against five opponents who were each incredibly popular. The counting of the votes was

overseen by the current student government.

Explanation 1: Richard received more votes than any other candidate, because while the

majority of votes were not for Richard, they were divided up among the other five

candidates.

Explanation 2: The student government intentionally miscounted the votes so that Richard

would win.

Answer 1

1. Answer: Explanation 2 is the correct answer. There is no mention of thief in the statement. The backpack was on Jeffrey’s back for the entire bus ride to the coffee shop. Hence, there is less possibility of the laptop being stolen. However, Jeffrey was on hurry in his apartment, therefore he might accidentally left his laptop in his apartment.

2. Answer: Explanation 1 is the correct answer. Manuel entered the kitchen immediately after putting his daughter down for a nap. Therefore, there is no chance for his daughter to enter the kitchen before Manuel. But his son was not there. Hence, Manuel's soon might took the pie.

3. Answer: Explanation 2 is the correct answer. As the Richard was not popular, there is less chance for him to win the election. Also, some of his proposals were not properly advertised. But the counting of votes overseen by his close friend Paul. Therefore, Paul might intentionally miscounted the votes so that Richard could win.

4. Answer: I think explanation 1 is the more appropriate answer. There were no relation between Richard and current student government, therefore why would current student government miscount the votes. So I think majority of votes were divided among the other five candidates. Hence, Richard received more votes than any other candidate.