Question

your initial probabilities of S1 and S2 are 0.7 and 0.3. track record is p(f|s1)=0.9 and p(f|s2)=0.05. compute p(s1|f), p(s2|f), p(s1|u), p(s2|u), p(f) and p(u)

Profit Payoff 0.85 2650(+5) Build Complex IF6 一 0.15 650 C1s) Favorable report issued P(F) 0.60 Sell IF 1150 Market Research 0.20 2650 Build Complex | U 0.80 650 Unfavorable report issued P(U)-040E Sell IU 1150 2650 S1 0.6 Build Comple 8S2 650 0.4 No Market Research 1150 Sell

Answer 1

tn PISI) Rens,) = 0.9×0.7 = 0.63 っ PiS^ 0.15. 0.63 + 0.15 63 O 807 0 . 78一 = 0.1923 (iv) PCF) o. 18

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