Question

20.00 points The quarterly production of pine lumber, in millions of board foet, by Northwest Lumber for 2010 through 2014 is 10.2 11.9 9.9 14.9 17.6 15.2 16.7 17.1 9.4 9.4 10.4 10.5 10.4 7.8 6.7 8.7 201310.7124 9.3 2010 2012 2014 2011 13.8 a. Determine the typical seasonal pattern for the production data using the ratio-to-moving-average method. (Round your answers to 4 declmal places) c. Deseasonalize the data and determine the linear trend equation. (Round your answers to 4 decimal d. Project the seasonaly adjusted production for the four quarters of 2015. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) 21 23 24 F6 F2 F3

Answer 1

Four Four Quarter Center Specific Moving Seasonal Average Year Season Production Quatr MovingM Total Average Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall Winter Spring Summer Fall 7.8 10.2 14.9 9.4 6.7 11.9 17.6 9.4 8.7 9.9 15.2 10.4 10.7 12.4 16.7 10.5 9.3 13.9 17.1 10.4 10.575 10.3 10.725 42.3 41.2 42.9 45.6 45.6 47.6 45.6 43.2 44.2 46.2 48.7 50.2 50.3 48.9 50.4 50.8 50.7 2010 10.4375 1.427545 10.5125 0.894174 11.0625 0.60565 1.04386 11.651.51073 11.65 0.806867 11.1 0.783784 0.925 0.906178 1.345133 11.8625 0.876712 12.3625 0.865521 12.5625 0.987065 4 1.346774 2011 11.9 10.8 11.05 11.55 12.175 12.55 12.575 12.225 12.6 12.7 12.675 2012 11.3 2013 12.4 12.4125 0.845921 12.65 0.735178 12.6875 1.095567 2014

Winter Spring Summer Fall Year 2010 2011 0.6056 1.04386 1.510730.806867 2012 0.783784 0.906178 1.345133 0.876712 2013 0.865521 0.987065 1.3467740.845921 2014 0.735178 1.095567 1.427545 0.894174 Avrage 0.747533 1.008167 1.407545 0.855919 Adjusted 0.743969 1.00336 1.400834 0.851837 Correction Factor 4/(Total of Average) Adiusted-Correction FactorAverage Total of Average 4.019164

Deseasonalized Year Sa ProductinIndex ProductionY 0.74397 10.48431325 1.00336 10.1658412 1.40083 10.63652185 0.85184 11.03497025 0.74397 9.005756257 Sng119 1.00336 11.86014806 1.4008312.56394527 0.85184 11.03497025 0.74397 11.69404171 1.00336 9.866845866 7.8 Spring 10.2 14.9 9.4 6.7 Winter 10.4843 20.3317 31.9096 44.1399 45.0288 71.1609 87.9476 88.2798 105.246 98.6685 100 119.357 146.507 144 186.97 173.019 196 178.822225 197.221 212.509 289 249.362 324 231.933 361 244.178 400 2543.08 2870 4 2010 3 4 5 6 9 Fall 25 36 49 64 81 Winter 2011 17.6 9.4 8.7 9.9 15.2 10.4 10.7 Fall Winter Spring 9 012 1.40083 10.85068 121 Fall Winter Spring 0.85184 12.20890326 0.74397 14.38232716 1.00336 12.35847361 1.4008311.92147079 8518412.32629656 0.74397 12.50052734 1.00336 13.85345026 12.207015 12 169 2013 16.7 10.5 9.3 13.9 15 Fall Winter Spring 18 2014 Summer 1.4008312 Fall 10.4 0.85184 12.20890326 Total 233.1654012 20 210

ig 29(2543,076/-223.165"X210 29χ2g 70一(210) 2 าว 0.1424

Seasonally the Poujst 2015 22 1329 1.oo 13.3Y Summe Pal 0.1916t