SOLUTION
We calculate the cumulative probability and the intervals of random numbers as below
Random number intervals | ||||
Stock Price Change ($) | Probability | Cumulative probability | From | Less than |
-2 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.05 |
-1 | 0.1 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
0 | 0.25 | 0.4 | 0.15 | 0.4 |
1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
4 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1 |
To simulate the price change for any 3 month period we do the
following
We set up the following
Copy the rows to get 1000 trails
paste the random numbers as values to avoid changes
get these
The the average stock price and per share 12 months from now, the standard deviation of the stock price 12 months from now and the highest and lowest possible prices are calculated as below
get these
The the average stock price and per share 12 months from now is $43.36, The standard deviation of the stock price 12 months from now is 3.1956
The lowest and highest prices possible as per this simulation is $35 and $54 respectively
But in reality the stock can lose a maximum of $2 in any given 3-month period. If the stock losses $2 in each of the 4, 3-month periods, then it can lose a maximum of $8. That means the lowest possible price of this stock in 12 months is $39-8=$31
Similarly the stock can gain a maximum of $4 in any 3-month period. If the stock gains $4 in each of the 4, 3-month periods, then it can gain a maximum of $16. That means the highest possible price of this stock in 12 months is $39+16=$55
(All answers were generated using 1,000 trials and native Excel functionality.) Suppose that the price of a share of a particular stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange is currently $39....
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