I have to make stock changes for the 90 days and professor showed example for 50 days.
I do not know how to do it.
Please understand the process of linking the random number with the probability distribution.
When you generate a random number between 0 and 1, it is
uniformly distributed, but if you divide this range of 0 to 1 into
7 buckets where -
1st bucket is of size 0.05 [Start at 0, end at 0.05]
2nd bucket is of size 0.10[Start at 0.05, end at 0.15]
3rd bucket is of size 0.25[Start at 0.15, end at 0.40]
4th bucket is of size 0.20[Start at 0.40, end at 0.60]
5th bucket is of size 0.20[Start at 0.60, end at 0.80]
6th bucket is of size 0.10[Start at 0.80, end at 0.90]
7th bucket is of size 0.10[Start at 0.90, end at 1.00]
You have ultimately transformed your uniform distribution of random
numbers to a desired probability distribution given in the
question.
Now, for next 90 days generate a random number and check it
belongds to which bucket, based on the bucket decide what will be
change in the price as given below -
- First I generate random numbers for all 90 days, later on I will
copy and paste values only to ensure that my random numbers do not
change every time I do some operation in the excel sheet -
Once, I pasted the "Values", random numbers might have changed once more, but now they should remain constant for the rest of the workings.
Now, look for each random number, in which bucket it lies.
Remember this will be a 6-step comparison. You will first check if
random number is in first bucket, if yes you will assign it value
from first bucket, then you will move on to check for the next
bucket. You will keep doing this till last bucket. There are 7
bucket and 6 comparisons will be required, as if some random number
is not in first 6 buckets, it will definitely be in 7th bucket, so
7th comparison will not be required. This formula will be very
lengthy as described above, but you will need to type it only for
the first cell, then it can be simply copied in all other remaining
cells -
For simplicity, let me paste the formula for for cell C3 here
-
=IF(B3<=$O$3,$M$3,IF(B3<=$O$4,$M$4,
IF(B3<=$O$5,$M$5,IF(B3<=$O$6,$M$6,
IF(B3<=$O$7,$M$7,IF(B3<=$O$8,$M$8,$M$9))))))
I have shown formula for first 30 dates only, but it will be
same in all other cells as well. Finally all the changes thus
calculated are added to the initial share price to get the final
share price -
Final values look like below -
For random numbers generated by me, final share price is 152, but depending upon random numbers generated by you this final price may be a bit different as well.
I have to make stock changes for the 90 days and professor showed example for 50...
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