Question

AutoSaveff File Home InsertPage Layout Formulas Da D1 1 Year Month 2 1 13 17 1 January February 15 4 1 March 511 April 6 1 May 12 32 15 June 1 July 91 August 17 101 September33 15 October 12 1 November34 December 21 14 2 January26 15 2 February10 13 1 162 March 17 2 April 18 2 May 14 19 17 14 27 30 222 September25 June 21 2 23 2 25 27 3 29 3 August October November 18 15 2 December27 24 January February March April May June July 11 19 23 19 18 30 3 Exercise.18 25 AutoSave off File Home InsertPage Layout Formulas Data D1 18 31 18 June 32 3 July 3 3August 4 3 September15 31 October 36 3 November 34 December27 8 4 January23 9 4 February22 17 3 3 40 4 March 4 April 41 42 4 43 4 44 4 24 17 24 15 19 46 4 September 33 19 May June July 4 August 47 4 48 4 October November16 49 4 December 39 17 19 25 30 18 17 19 36 50 5 51 5 Janua February 5 March 53 5 April May June July August September 19 October November 21 December 35 5 45 56 5 57 5 58 5 59 5 60 5 61 5 26 Exercise 18,25 a. Calculate the 12-month centered moving average. (Do not rou places.) CMAý Month Jan Feb Mar Year May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar May Jun Jul Aug b. Calculate the ratio-to-moving average. (Do not round in Ratio-to-Moving Averagexylý Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Year Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar c-1. Calculate the seasonal indices for April and November (Do not round intermediate calcu decimal places.) Adjusted Seasonal Index April November not round intermediate calculations. Round you c-2. Interpret the seasonal index for April. (Do its average monthly level The series is

Answer 1

Answer: Date: --10/5/2019 Calculate the 12-month centered moving average by using Excel add-in (MegaStat). Excel add-in (MegaStat) procedure: Step 1: In EXCEL, Select Add-Ins>MegaStatTime series/Forecasting. Step 2: Choose Deseasonalization Step 3: Select the data range under Input range of seasonal data as Data. Step 4: Choose Monthly Step 5: Under First data period, enter Year as 12 Step 6: Click Ok. Excel add-in (MegaStat) output:

Centered Moving Average and Deseasonalization Centered Moving Ratio to Seana Data D Year Month ata Average CMA Indexes Deseasonalized 0.6978 24.3637 08482 17.6839 0863 11.0464 0.8081 39.5967 08287 18.1000 7 2 20.96 00 10996 19.0970 8 17 21.21 0.80 0.9885 17,1980 33 20.88 1.58 12389 26.6375 15 21.13 0.71 0.9025 16.6206 34 20.79 1.64 11644 29.1992 1.04 12994 6.1612 1.28 1.0375 25.0602 2 10 21.13 047 0.6978 14.3316 14 21.33 0.66 08482 16.5050 19 21.00 0.90 10863 17.4902 17 20.33 0.84 0.8081 21.0358 14 19.92 0.70 0.8287 16.8933 7 27 20.08 134 1.0996 24.5533 8 30 20.04 50 0.9885 30.3494 9 25 20.29 123 12389 20.1799 15 20.67 0.73 0.9025 16.6206 18 20.92 0.86 1644 15.4584 128 1.2994 20.7787 12 1.0375 23.1325 2 11 21.17 0.52 0.6978 15.7648 19 20.25 0.94 0.8482 22 3996 4 23 20.50 12 10863 21.1723 5 19 21.83 0.87 0.8081 23.5106 18 22.50 0.80 0.8287 21.7200 7 31 2246 138 10996 28.1908 18 22 88 0.79 0.9885 18 2096 15 23.25 0.65 12389 12 1079 31 23.21 134 0.9025 34.3492 34 23.17 147 .1644 29.1992 27 23.33 16 2994 20.7787 10 20.13 20.33 12 21.50 10 12

00 1.0375 22 1686 2 22 22 29 0.99 0.6978 31.5295 3 17 23.08 074 0.8482 20.0418 4 24 23.33 03 10863 22.0929 5 17 22.08 077 0.8081 21.0358 6 24 21.83 10 0.8287 28.9600 7 15 22.08 0.68 1.0996 13.6407 8 19 21.71 088 0.9885 19 2213 33 21,92 151 12389 26.6375 19 22 500.84 0.9025 21.0527 16 22.79 0.70 1.1644 13.7408 1.73 1.2994 30.0137 0.76 1.0375 16.3855 2 19 23.29 0.82 06978 27 2300 3 25 2342 107 0.8482 29.4732 30 23.13 1.30 10863 27.6161 18 23.63 0.76 0.8081 22 2732 6 17 23.67 072 0.8287 20.5133 1.0996 17 2783 0.9885 36.4193 1.2389 15.3367 0.9025 28.8090 1.1644 18.0348 1.2994 26.9354 23 22 92 39 2254 17 22 42 7 19 8 36 9 19 21 35 12

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes 1.0020001615808071011 635310435 1.1163 0.8000 1.3803 7869 6452 133571.4676 1.1571 9040 1.1664 .3016 12.0201 adjusted 035 06978 08482 10863 0808 0.827 10996 09885 12389 09025 1644 12994 12.0000 mean: 1.0392 0.6989 0.8496 1.0881 0.8095 0.8301 1.1015 0.9901 12409 Deseasonalization 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 12 24 36 60 Month Data DeseasonalizedLinear (Deseasonalized)

The 12-month centered moving average is tabulated below Centered Moving Year Month Data Average 1Jan13 Feb17 Mar 1 12 1 May 32 Jun15 u 21 20.96 17 21.21 33 20.88 Oct 1521.13 Nov 34 20.79 1Dec 21 20.13 Jan 26 20.33 Feb10 21.13 2 Mar 14 21.33 1921.00 17 20.33 19.92 Ju 27 20.08 30 20.04 25 20.29 15 20.67 Nov 1820.92 2 Dec 27 21.17 Jan 24 21.50 11 21.17 3 Mar 19 20.25 23 20.50 1921.83 Jun18 22.50 Jul 3 22.46 2 M Jun14 Feb 1 3 May

18 22.88 Sep 1523.25 23.21 3 Nov 34 23.17 23.33 4 Jan 23 22.92 4 Feb 22 22.29 4 Mar7 23.08 Apr 24 23.33 4 May 17 22.08 4 Jun24 21.83 15 22.08 1921.71 21.92 4 Oct 19 22.50 22.79 4 Dec 39 2254 an 17 22.42 5 Feb 19 23.29 23.42 30 23.13 23.63 5 Jun17 23.67 Oct 31 Dec 7 Aug1 ep 33 4 Nov 16 5 Mar 25 Apr30 5 May18 Jul19 Aug 36 Sep 19 5 Oct 26 5 Nov 21 Dec 35

b. Calculate the ratio-to-moving average Centered Moving Ratio to Year Month Data Average CMA 1Jan 13 Feb 17 1 Mar 15 12 32 Jun15 1 Ma Jul 21 20.96 1.00 0.80 1.58 0.71 1.64 1.04 1.28 0.47 0.66 0.90 2 May1720.33 0.84 0.70 1.34 1.50 1.23 0.73 2 Nov18 20.92 0.86 1.28 1.12 0.52 0.94 1.12 0.87 0.80 1.38 17 21.21 33 20.88 15 21.13 1No 34 20.79 20.13 Jan 26 20.33 2 Feb 10 21.13 2 Mar 14 21.33 19 21.00 1 Dec 21 19.92 Jul 27 20.08 30 20.04 25 20.29 Oct 1520.67 Jun 14 2 Au Se 2 Dec 27 21.17 Jan 24 21.50 21.17 3Mar 19 20.25 23 20.50 19 21.83 Jun 18 22.50 31 22.46 Feb11 3 Ma Jul31

3 Aug18 22.88 0.79 Sep 15 23.25 0.65 1.34 3 Nov 34 23.17 1.47 3 Dec 27 23.33 1.16 4 Jan 23 22.92 1.00 4 Feb 22 22.29 0.99 4Mar 17 23.08 0.74 4 Apr 24 23.33 1.03 22.08 0.77 4 Jun 24 21.83 1.10 2.08 0.68 Oct 3123.21 Aug 19 21.71 088 1.51 4 Oct 19 22.50 0.84 2.79 0.70 4 Dec 39 2254 1.73 0.76 5 Feb 19 23.29 0.82 1.07 30 23.131.30 0.76 5 Jun 1723.67 0.72 Sep3321.92 4Nov 16 Jan 17 22.42 5 Mar25 23.42 18 23.63 Apr310 5 May18 Jul 19 5 A36 Sep 19 5 Oct 26 5 Nov 21 5 Dec 35

Sal. Calculate the seasonal indices for April and November. From the MegaStat output, the Adjusted Seasonal Index are tabulated below Adjusted Seasonal Index April 1.0863 November 1.1644 c2. Interpret the seasonal index for April The series is 1.08% above its average monthly level c3. Interpret the seasonal index for November. The series is 1.16% above its average monthly level