Question

3. Forecasting Methods for a Constant Level Model, examples? (Spt) General principles of Unconstrained optimization and what are parameters of the algorithm? (Sp) Fill in the critical path (7pt): 4. 5. Finish Start 2
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Answer 1

ANSWER:

3) Forecasting methods for constant level model

• There are 4 forecasting methods for the constant level model.

1. LAST VALUE FORECASTING METHOD
2. AVERAGING FORECASTING METHOD
3. MOVING - AVERAGE FORECASTING METHOD
4. EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTING METHOD

-> LAST VALUE FORECASTING METHOD:

By interpreting t as current time, the last value forecasting procedure uses the value of the time series observed at time t(xt)

as the forecast at time t+1

Ft+1=xt

For example: if xt -> sales of a particular product in the quarter just ended

This procedure uses these scales as the forecast of the sales for the next quarter.

4) Unconstrained Optimization

It deals with the problem of minimizing a function $f : F\rightarrow R$ over an open set min f(x) x belongs to F

FC R"

Algorithm:

• Choose a starting point $x_{0}$
• Beginning at $x_{0}$ generate a sequence of iterates with non increasing function value.

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