Question

using the table and info below - Investigate the possibility by conventional forecasting methods (in other words the moving averages) that the figure of 1600 units will be exceeded in any of the next six months.

The sales factory manufacturing remotes over the last 24 months were as follows Units sold Month Units sold Month 1 440 13 1140 1 530 14 1 180 2 1 560 1 130 15 1 350 16 1 080 4 1 350 17 1 110 1 420 18 1 200 6 1 530 19 1 280 7 1 530 340 340 20 1 430 21 1 430 1 240 10 1 490 23 1 140 1 570 24 12 1 230 Its obviously that the monthly sales are increasing but it is also obvious to the production manager that he gets close to the capacity. In fact, should demand exceed 1600 units a month the factory would have to be expanded to meet the requirements. Investigate the possibility by conventional forecasting methods (in other words the moving averages) that the figure of 1600 units will be exceeded in any of the next six months

Answer 1

Date:--24/05/2019 Answer.--- The excel forecasting moving averages output: Upper Lower Timeline Values Forecast Confidence Confidence Average BoundBound 1140 11801160 11301155 4 11801155 11101145 12001155 1280 1240 1340 1310 9 1340 1340 10 1240 1290 11401190 12 12301185 13 1440 1335 15301485 15 1560 1545 16 13501455 17 13501350 18 1420 1385 19 15301475 20 1530 1530 21 1430 1480 1430 1430 23 1490 1460 1570 24 15701530 1570 1570 1786 25 1617 1664 1542 1858 26 1699 1735 1612 1539 1787 27 1699 1663 1760 28 1649 1635 1510 1423 29 15921549 1675 1638 1511 30 1593 1765 And the corresponding Chart: (I recommend you to first download it and then view it.)

Forecasting Using Moving Averages 2000 1200 800 25 ーLower Cortcence Dound -Upper Cofidence Dand Moring Average