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Our original information was that the probability of High demand was .6. We collected the following new information about wha

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Answer #1

1. P(High demand) = 0.6

P(low demand) = 1 - 0.6 = 0.4

P(improving economy | low demand) = 1 - 0.51 = 0.49

P(low demand and improving economy) = 0.4 x 0.49

= 0.196

2. P(High demand) = 0.6

P(low demand) = 1 - 0.6 = 0.4

P(improving economy | high demand) = 0.7

P(improving economy | low demand) = 1 - 0.64 = 0.36

P(improving economy) = P(low demand and improving economy) + P(high demand and improving economy)

= 0.6x0.7 + 0.4x0.36

= 0.564

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