Question

N 10.00 polnts PA 15-6 La Villa is a ski resort in the Italian Alps... La Villa is a ski resort in the Italian Alps. Many guests visit the town, however, most of them come in the winter season because of the phenom initial forecast of 17,000, forecast demand for the first four quarters in 2015. (Round Seasonal Index to 3 decimal places and all the other answers to 2 decimal places.) Deaseasonalized Smoothed Demand Re-seasonalized Forecast Seasonal Year Qtr Demand Quarter Season Average Forecast Index Demand 17,720.43 17,000.00 17,812.27 2012 1 22,100 1 21,866.67 1.247 2015Q1 2 14,900 2 14,666.67 0.837 18,275.00 2015Q2 3 13,700 3 14,466.67 0.825 16,604.15 17,431.25 2015Q3 4 19,000 4 19,133.33 1.091 17,411.15 16,498.44 2015Q4 2013 1 20,100 Overall 17,533.33 16,118.68 17,123.83 2 17,000 20,310.63 17,867.87 3 16,500 20,000.00 17,650.90 4 18,700 17,140.24 17,363.18 2014 1 23,400 18,765.04 17,697.38 14,456.39 19,123.04 16,000.00 18,056.83 2 12,100 3 13,200 17,367.28 4 19,700 16,325.46 (of 10) Save & Exit Submit eason because of the phenomenal sking. A group of hotels has analyzed their demand for the last three years. Fill in the table below. Using a smoothing parameter of 0.25 and a Re-seasonalized t Forecast

Answer 1

Year	Otr	Demand		Quarter	Season Average	Seasonal Index	Deseasonalized Demand	Smoothed Demand	Forecast	Quarter	Re-Seasonalized Forecast
2012	1	22100		1	21866.66667	1.247148289	17720.43	17000	2015	1	17423.6115
2012	2	14900		2	14666.66667	0.836501901	17812.27	18275	2015	2	17433.223
2012	3	13700		3	14466.66667	0.825095057	16604.15	17431.25	2015	3	17442.8345
2012	4	19000		4	19133.33333	1.091254753	17411.15	16498.44	2015	4	17452.446
2013	1	20100		Overall	17533.33333		16116.77	17123.83
2013	2	17000					20322.73	17867.87
2013	3	16500					19997.70	17650.9
2013	4	18700					17136.24	17363.18
2014	1	23400					18762.80	17697.38
2014	2	12100					14465.00	19123.04
2014	3	13200					15998.16	17367.28
2014	4	19700					18052.61	16325.46

Excel Formula Sheet: Copy & Paste in Cell A1

Year	Otr	Demand		Quarter	Season Average	Seasonal Index	Deseasonalized Demand	Smoothed Demand	Forecast	Quarter	Re-Seasonalized Forecast
2012	1	22100		1	=AVERAGE(C2,C6,C10)	=F2/$F$6	=C2/G2	17000	2015	1	=9.6115*K2 + 17414
2012	2	14900		2	=AVERAGE(C3,C7,C11)	=F3/$F$6	=C3/G3	18275	2015	2	=9.6115*K3 + 17414
2012	3	13700		3	=AVERAGE(C4,C8,C12)	=F4/$F$6	=C4/G4	17431.25	2015	3	=9.6115*K4 + 17414
2012	4	19000		4	=AVERAGE(C5,C9,C13)	=F5/$F$6	=C5/G5	16498.44	2015	4	=9.6115*K5 + 17414
2013	1	20100		Overall	=AVERAGE(F2:F5)		=C6/G2	17123.83
2013	2	17000					=C7/G3	17867.87
2013	3	16500					=C8/G4	17650.9
2013	4	18700					=C9/G5	17363.18
2014	1	23400					=C10/G2	17697.38
2014	2	12100					=C11/G3	19123.04
2014	3	13200					=C12/G4	17367.28
2014	4	19700					=C13/G5	16325.46

y 9.6115x+17414 Chart Title R2 0.0021 19500 19000 18500 18000 17500 17000 16500 16000 15500 15000 14500 1 2 3 4 7 9 10 11 12

C A D G H Demand Quarter Season Average Seasonal Index Deseasonalized Demand Smoothed Demand Forecast Quarter Re-Seasonalized Forecast Otr 1 Year 17000 2 2012 1 22100 21866.66667 1.247148289 17720.43 2015 1 17423.6115 14666.66667 0.836501901 17812.27 2012 14900 18275 2015 7 17433.223 2012 13700 14466.66667 16604.15 3 0.825095057 17431.25 2015 17442.8345 1.091254753 4 2012 4 19000 19133.33333 17411.15 16498.44 2015 17452.446 Overall 17533.33333 6 2013 20100 16116.77 17123.83 7 2013 17000 20322.73 17867.87 Chart Title 14 2013 16500 19997.70 17650.9 R-0.0021 18700 19500 2013 17136.24 17363.18 4 10 2014 23400 18762.80 17697.38 19000 19123.04 12100 18500 14465.00 11 2014 13200 15998.16 17367.28 12 2014 2 18000 2014 16325.46 18052.61 13 19700 17500 14 17000 15 16500 16 16000 17 15500 18 15000 19 14500 20 2 34 5 6 7 89 1 10 11 12 21