Question

How does the civilian unemployment rate compare to the U.S. natural rate of unemployment of 5.3%?...

  1. How does the civilian unemployment rate compare to the U.S. natural rate of

    unemployment of 5.3%? What does this imply about the cyclical rate of

    unemployment?

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Answer #1

As per FRED database, Civilian unemployment rate in December 2018 (latest available data) is 3.9%, which is lower than natural rate of unemployment. Since

Civilian unemployment rate = Frictional unemployment + Structural unemployment + Cyclical unemployment, and

Natural unemployment rate = Frictional unemployment + Structural unemployment,

Civilian unemployment rate - Natural unemployment rate = Cyclical unemployment.

When Civilian unemployment rate < Natural unemployment rate, we find that Cyclical unemployment is negative.

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