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Free-Response Questions Directions: Show all work. Indicate clearly the methods you use. You will be graded on method as well
3) The president of Pegasus Corporation is trying to decide which of three candidates (denoted as candidates A, B, and C) to
Free-Response Questions Directions: Show all work. Indicate clearly the methods you use. You will be graded on method as well as accuracy. 1) Consider the following risk profiles for two decision strategies: A and B. The payoffs are given in tens of thousands of dollars (18p.) A Payoff 4 11 14 18 Probability 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.30 В Рayoff 4 11 14 18 Probability 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.30 Determine each of the following statements as True or False A stochastically dominates B B stochastically dominates A. A deterministically dominates B. B deterministically dominates A. Neither A nor B stochastically dominates the other. Neither A nor B deterministically dominates the other. 2) The executives of a particular company are considering the national launch of a new product The launch will be either a "success" (resulting in a payoff of $8 million) or a "failure" (resulting in a loss of $2 million). The initial estimates of the probabilities of success and failure are 0.80 and 0.20, respectively The company has the opportunity to contract with a marketing firm in order to conduct a study determine whether or not the product will be a success. (40p.) a) What would be the maximum amount that the company should pay this marketing firm for the study, assuming that the study would be a perfect indicator of the success of the product? (EVPI) b) Assume that, for the company, data have been gathered as to the accuracy of studies made by the marketing firm. These data indicate the following conditional probabilities: P(study forecasts successlproduct is a success)-0.95, P(study forecasts failurelproduct is a failure)-0.90. What is the maximum amount that should be paid for this (imperfect) marketing study? (EVSI)
3) The president of Pegasus Corporation is trying to decide which of three candidates (denoted as candidates A, B, and C) to hire as the firm's new vice president of marketing The primary criteria the president is considering are each candidate's leadership ability, interpersonal skills, and administrative ability. After carefully considering their qualifications, the president used AHP to create the following pairwise comparison matrices for the three candidates on the various criteria: (42p.) Leadership Ability A B C 3 4 A 1 1/3 1/4 1 C 1/2 Interpersonal Skills Values of RI for use in AHP A RI (Random Index) 1 1/2 1 1/8 3 2 0.00 2 8 1/3 1 0.58 Administrative Ability 0.90 4 A C 1.12 5 1/8 1/3 1 A B 1/5 5 1 8 3 C Next, the president of Pegasus considered the relative importance of the three criteria. This resulted in the following pairwise comparison matrix: Criteria Administrative Аbility Interpersonal Skills Leadership Аbility 1/4 1/2 1/3 1 Leadership Ability Interpersonal Skills Administrative Ability 1 2 4 a) Use AHP to compute scores for each candidate on each of the three criteria and to compute weights for each of the criteria. b) Was the president consistent in making pairwise comparisons? (Check only for Leadership Ah) e) Compute the weighted average score for each candidate. Which candidate should be selected according to your results? BC
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Answer: 1) Astochastically dominates B = False A stochastically dominates B =True A deterministically dominates B=False B det

3)

Calculation for leadership is given as below, Firstly write down the whole data and take the sum of it column-wise. The scree

Now, divide the each value by the sum of its columns value. The screenshot is given as below, =C4/C$7 C11 A C 1 Pairwise Com

After this calculate the price scores by using the AVERAGE( ) function of excel. The screenshot is given as below, =AVERAGE(C

Now, calculate the consistency measure by using the MMULT( ) function of excel. The screenshot is given as below fox =MMULT(C

Finally calculate the consistency ratio by using the AVERAGE( ) function of excel. The screenshot is given as below, - AVERAG

Similarly do calculation for interpersonal skills. The only change is that change in formula of consistency easure. The chang

Similarly do calculation for administrative skills. The only change is that change in formula of consistency measure. The cha

Similarly do calculation for criteria. The only change is that change in formula of consistency measure. The changed formula

The table for the combination of each calculated values is given as below C D E F 1 2 Alternative Criterion 3 Criterion X Y Z

b. On seeing the above calculation, it can be said that the president is consistent in making pairwise comparison

C. Again take the table of combination of each comparison, A C D E G 1 Alternative 2 Criterion Criterion X Y Z Weights 0.623

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