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bcain the medical records of 100,000 males, exactly 13 will be diagnosed with hemophilia. mechanism that gives each digit probabality O.1 of being a 0. el What proportion of the finst 50 digits in the table are 0s! This proportion is an estimate, based on 50 repetitions, of the true probability, which in this case is known to be 0.1. 1b) The Probabilty applet can imitate random digits. Set the probability of heads in the applet to 0.1. Check Show true probability to show this value on the graph. A head stands for a 0 in the random digits table, and a tail stands for any other digit. Simulate 200 digits. If you kept going forever, presumably you would get 10% heads what was the result of your 200 tosses? Probability says. Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. (The probability is usually a more exact measure of likelihood than is the verbal 9.3 Match one of the probabilities that follow with each statement of likelihood given. statement.) 0 0.01 0.3 0.6 0.99 1 (a) This event is impossible. It can never occur (b) This event is certain. It will occur on every trial. (c) This event is very unlikely, but it will occur once in a while in a long sequence of trials (d) This event will occur more often than not. Probability models Gamblers have known for centuries that the fall of coins, cards, and dice displays clear patterns in the long run. After all, the first formal studies of probabilities were aimed at understanding various games of chance. The idea of probability rests on the observed fact that the average result of many thousands of chance outcomes can be known with near certainty. How can we give a mathematical description ra re of long-run regularity? e To see how to proceed, think first about a very simple random phenomenon, the birth of one child. When the child is conceived, we cannot know the outcome n advance. What do we know? We are willing to say that the outcome will be N h male or female. We believe that each of these outcomes has probability 1/2.c description of a childs birth has two parts: A list of possible outcomes A probability for each outcome olc Here is the basic vocab-

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