Accuracy of pregnancy tests. Seventy-five percent of all women who submit to pregnancy tests are really pregnant. A certain pregnancy test gives a false positive result with probability .02 and a valid positive result with probability .99. If a particular woman’s test is positive, what is the probability that she really is pregnant? [Hint: If A is the event that a woman is pregnant and B is the event that the pregnancy test is positive, then B is the union of the two mutually exclusive events A ∩ B and Ac ∩ B. Also, the probability of a false positive result may be written as P(B | Ac) =.02.]
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