The article “Birth Beats Long Odds for Leap Year Mom, Baby” (San Luis Obispo Tribune, March 2, 1996) reported that a leap year baby (someone born on February 29) became a leap year mom when she gave birth to a baby on February 29, 1996. The article stated that a hospital spokesperson said that only about 1 in 2.1 million births is a leap year baby born to a leap year mom (a probability of approximately .00000047)
a. In computing the given probability, the hospital spokesperson used the fact that a leap day occurs only once in 1461 days. Write a few sentences explaining how the hospital spokesperson computed the stated probability.
b. To compute the stated probability, the hospital spokesperson had to assume that the birth was equally likely to occur on any of the 1461 days in a four-year period. Do you think that this is a reasonable assumption? Explain.
c. Based on your answer to Part (b), do you think that the probability given by the hospital spokesperson is too small, about right, or too large? Explain.
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