Hurricane Evaluation RubricYou work with a team of disaster specialists for the Weather Ch...

Hurricane Evaluation Rubric

You work with a team of disaster specialists for the Weather Channel. During discussions about coverage of the upcoming hurricane season, your boss states that she doesn’t believe the Saffir-Simpson scale sufficiently reflects the risks associated with hurricanes because it places so much emphasis on the physical characteristics of the storm. The channel wants to create its own scoring system that better evaluates the potential damage from incoming hurricanes.

1. You and your team are assigned to create an evaluation rubric to assess factors influencing the risk of damage from a future hurricane. On the table presented here, identify at least five additional factors; one (wind speed) has been included as an example. When developing your rubric, consider both physical and cultural factors.

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2. After completing the rubric, you realize that some factors are more significant than others. Your team decides to double the score of the most important factor. Which factor do they choose? Why?

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3. Read the following descriptions of Hurricanes Dennis and Mitch that are abbreviated versions of accounts published by the National Climatic Data Center (www.ncdc.noaa.gov). Do these descriptions cause you to change any of the categories in your scoring rubric? Rank these storms, using your modified rubric.

Hurricane Dennis, August 1999. The coastal areas of North Carolina experienced their fourth tropical storm scare in as many years in late August. Hurricane Dennis developed over the eastern Bahamas on August 26 and drifted northward parallel to the southeast US coast. Dennis became an immediate threat to southeastern North Carolina on August 29. The storm center came to within 97 kilometers (60 miles) of the coast early on August 30 as a strong category 2 hurricane with highest sustained winds of 166 kilometers per hour (103 miles per hour). Rainfall amounts approached 25 centimeters (10 inches) in coastal southeastern North Carolina.

This area is no stranger to hurricane activity. Category 2 Hurricane Bertha and category 3 Hurricane Fran hit Brunswick County in 1996, and Hurricane Bonnie (category 2) followed nearly the same path in 1998. Prior to 1996, the area had been spared from the direct impact of a hurricane since Charlie (category 1) hit Carteret County in 1986.

Because Hurricane Dennis never made landfall, damage was only moderate. However, the storm lingered off the coast for several days, so beach erosion and damage to coastal highways were significant. Residents of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands were stranded for several days because of severe damage to Highway 12.

Hurricane Mitch, October/November 1998. Hurricane Mitch will be remembered as the most deadly hurricane to strike the Western Hemisphere in the last two centuries. The death toll was reported as 11,000, with thousands of others missing. More than 3 million people were either left homeless or otherwise severely affected by the storm. In this extremely poor developing region of the globe, estimates of the total damage exceeded $5 billion.

Within 4 days of its origin as a tropical depression on October 22, Mitch had grown into a category 5 storm. On October 26, the monster storm had deepened to a pressure of 905 millibars, with sustained winds of 155 knots (180 miles per hour) and gusts well over 200 miles per hour.

Mitch moved westward, and on October 27, it was about 97 kilometers (60 miles) north of Honduras. Preliminary wave height estimates north of Honduras during this time were as high as 13.5 meters (44 feet), according to one model.

Although the ferocious winds began to abate slowly, it took Mitch 2 days to drift southward and make landfall. Mitch then began a slow westward drift through the mountainous interior of Honduras, finally reaching the border with Guatemala on October 31.

Although the ferocity of the winds decreased during the westward drift, the storm produced enormous amounts of precipitation, caused in part by the mountains of Central America. As moist air from both the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean to its south fed into Mitch, the stage was set for a disaster of epic proportions. Taking into account the orographic effects of the volcanic peaks of Central America and Mitch’s slow movement, rain fell at a rate of 30 to 60 centimeters (12 to 24 inches) per day in many of the mountainous regions. Total rainfall of as much as nearly 2 meters (79 inches) was reported for the entire storm.